DStv will lose half a million customers in South Africa over the next five years, while its revenue in the country will decline by around R3 billion.
That is according to the Africa Pay TV Forecast report from television industry intelligence firm Digital TV Research.
The report forecasts that South Africa will have about 9.2 million PayTV subscribers by 2027.
Of these, DStv will account for 8.4 million, which means it will remain the dominant provider in the country.
However, that figure is 500,000 less than the 8.9 million South African subscribers it had as of September 2021, according to its interim results for the current financial year.
Although the broadcaster has been bleeding high-end Premium package users over the past few years, its total subscriber count has risen due to increased uptake in the low-end and mid-market segments.
For example, its latest half-year results showed an overall increase of around 200,000 subscribers between March 2021 and September 2021.
But its average revenue per user has taken repeated hits from 2017 due to fewer subscribers on its most expensive packages.
Digital TV Research also said it expected overall pay TV revenue in South Africa to sit at US$2 billion by 2027, with DStv supplying nearly all of it.
For comparison, DStv operator MultiChoice’s annual revenue in South Africa was already at R34.3 billion for the year ended March 2021. That means it should expect a decline in revenue of around R3 billion by 2027.
While the report’s authors would not state the reasons for the reduction in subscribers and revenue to MyBroadand, DStv has increasingly come under pressure from Internet-based video streaming services like Netflix and Amazon Prime Video in recent years.
MultiChoice might absorb the pay TV revenue reduction somewhat by increasing subscribers on its Showmax streaming service.
But as more streaming services reach South Africa’s shores, it will have to invest heavily in original content, with international powerhouses expected to pull their movies and TV shows from rival platforms when they launch their own services.
