Standard Bank has raised its forecast for Namibia’s real GDP growth in 2026 to between 2.2% and 2.9%, from an initial projection of 1.2%, following stronger-than-expected economic activity in the second quarter.
Standard Bank Group Economist Helena Mboti said stronger second-quarter growth, coupled with an upward revision to first-quarter performance, had shifted the bank’s outlook away from a weaker growth trajectory.
“The stronger 2Q26 print and upward revision to 1Q26 shift our outlook away from a structurally weaker growth path towards growth broadly in line with 2025. We now expect real GDP growth of 2.2%-2.9% in 2026, up from our initial 1.2% forecast, conditional on the persistence of consumption and investment activity,” Mboti said.
The revised outlook follows real GDP growth of 4.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, up from a revised 3.1% in the first quarter and 1.7% in the second quarter of 2025.
Standard Bank said the second-quarter performance was supported by stronger domestic demand and investment, although structural weaknesses persisted in sectors including mining and construction.
Mboti said the improved near-term outlook remains dependent on sustained private consumption and investment activity.
She said whether the stronger performance develops into a sustained growth cycle will depend largely on how investment spending filters through the domestic economy and the resilience of the agricultural sector to climate-related shocks.
“Overall, the near-term outlook has improved, but whether this develops into a sustained growth cycle will depend on the domestic transmission of investment spending and the resilience of the agriculture sector to climate shocks. Risks remain tilted to the downside,” she said.
Standard Bank warned that higher inflation and interest rates, together with rising global oil prices, could weaken consumer spending and increase Namibia’s import bill during the second half of 2026, potentially pushing growth towards the lower end of its forecast range.
Agricultural growth also faces risks heading into 2027, with the bank warning that momentum could weaken as El Niño conditions intensify.
The bank further identified delays in final investment decisions (FIDs) and a slowdown in foreign investment-related spending as risks to domestic economic activity.
“Higher inflation and interest rates, compounded by rising global oil prices, could weigh on consumption and increase the import bill in 2H26, pulling growth towards the lower end of our range. Agricultural momentum could also weaken into 2027 as El Niño intensifies, while further delays in final investment decisions or a slowdown in foreign investment-related spending would soften domestic activity,” Mboti said.
Standard Bank said the sustainability of the improved growth outlook will ultimately depend on whether investment activity continues to support domestic production, consumption and broader economic activity.
