By Tio Nakasole
The neutral position is typically not where everyone wants to be. Even under the CAF League ecosystem, national teams that hover in the middle rarely emerge as continental champions or World Cup contenders. The middle seat on an aeroplane, subject to incursions from either side, is not very comfortable.
The middle manager is accountable in every direction, empowered in none. In the same spirit, regulatory frameworks that remain neutral risk becoming functionally ineffective, neither sufficiently enabling investment nor firmly protecting national interests. The government is brimming with excitement about a possible investment and economic development anticipated, especially in the primary sector.
In the past quarters, the growth impetus has been observed from the tertiary sector (63.35% of GDP in 2025), making the domestic economy register its longest consecutive quarter of growth since the second quarter of 2021. Despite the acknowledged sectoral growth, the primary sector is expected to boost the aggregate growth of the economy from an estimated 3.3% in 2026 to 3.6% in 2027.
However, due to geopolitical upheaval in the Middle East, the potential of further growth in 2026 and 2027 might be nosedived by external shocks such as the global commodity price fluctuations, especially in the mining and agriculture sectors, due to the US-Israel-Iran war.
One of the push factors for Namibia is that it is a net importer of refined fuel products; the situation presents a dual headwind: rising global crude prices and potential volatility in refined product markets, at the same time raising the cost of living. However, this is just the tip of the iceberg; the main elephant in the room that has been socio-economic transformation from within in the past years is the opacity to revamp, revive and reboot regulatory frameworks in the current dispensation.
Framework Enhancement
For the past 36 years of a natural resources-backed economy and slow economic growth, it demonstrated that established sectors such as mining and energy, regulation, and legal institutional structures exist but need efficiency, alignment, and responsiveness to evolving market conditions.
High inequality demands equal participation; green energy development needs to support communities while preserving the flora and fauna; high unemployment needs opportunities to be unlocked; starvation and poverty need assurance of food security; the export of raw materials needs value addition and value creation to be done on critical resources; and business-minded people need access to capital and SME development.
Additionally, some of the red-flagged indicators, such as tax rates, remain high relative to those of other Southern African markets. Tax rates remain high relative to those of other Southern African markets. Combined with the long hours required for the payment of taxes, these rates act as a deterrent to FDI flows into the country.
Regulatory Fragmentation
Emerging industries, such as GH2 for example, are clear elements of a fragmented framework, as one-piece falls under the environment, another under energy, another elsewhere, and so on. It’s not all pulled together in one focused document that deals directly with hydrogen. Additionally, regulatory architecture is still catching up with the pace of investment interest and technological change.
Moreover, some of the intended regulatory vehicles, such as the Namibia Investment Promotion and Facilitation Bill, National Equitable Economic Empowerment Bill, Public Finance Management Bill, Public Procurement Amendment Bill, Public Enterprise Governance Amendment Bill, Access to Information Bill, Regional and Constituency Development Fund Bill, Green Hydrogen Bill and Synthetic Fuel Act, are still on the menu. Not all investors will commit capital earliest over a 10- or 20-year horizon while navigating uncertainty. And that derails both developments and growth.
It is the government’s prerogative to ensure the regulatory frameworks are active and are organically driven as opposed to those that are extractive based in nature, in tandem ensure that the investor’s confidence is preserved in the long run.
Why it Matters
Regulatory frameworks are the primacy upon which stable, transparent, and sustainable economic systems are built. An economy that is built on a weak foundation is more susceptible to collapse like a house of cards every time it is about to reach its transformational peak. Our policies’ plans should not only be designed for the sake of selling an ideology but also to transform communities.
Regulatory frameworks should not only be viewed as gatekeepers of approval and compliance; they are the architecture within which investment confidence is constructed and sustained. When properly calibrated, they move beyond passive oversight and become active enablers of economic participation.
Therefore, an economic target for any nation is futile if it is focusing solely on a percentage change. One doesn’t improve the economic growth of the country by looking at GDP alone but by focusing on its key drivers such as regulatory frameworks that govern the underlying sectoral economic variables which collectively constitute GDP.
Tio Nakasole, Analyst at Monasa Advisory and Associates. His insights draw from his experience in economic and policy analysis. The views expressed do not represent those of his employer. – theoerastus@gmail.com
