Namibia’s economy is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2025, down from 3.7% in 2024, before recovering to 3.9% in 2026, according to the Bank of Namibia’s (BoN) August 2025 Economic Outlook.
The central bank attributed the slowdown to weaker performances in the primary and secondary industries, although the tertiary sector is expected to remain the largest contributor to GDP growth next year.
The BoN forecasts that primary industries will contract by 0.2% in 2025, largely due to a 6.0% decline in agriculture, forestry and fishing.
Livestock farming is set to drop by 16.8% following drought-induced herd reductions in 2024. In contrast, crop farming and forestry are expected to grow by 8.6% on the back of improved rainfall, while fishing and fish processing are projected to shrink by 4.7%.
“Real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 3.5% in 2025, slightly below the 3.7% for 2024. The slowdown is largely attributed to a contraction in primary industries, particularly the livestock subsector, which continues to be impacted by the drought conditions experienced in 2024,” the BoN stated.
Mining and quarrying is forecast to expand by 3.1% in 2025. Uranium output is expected to rise by 23.3% due to sustained global demand for nuclear energy, while metal ores are set to grow by 8.3%, supported by higher-grade ore processing and elevated gold prices.
However, diamond mining is projected to decline by 4.5% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026, weighed down by weak international demand and increasing competition from synthetic alternatives.
“The diamond mining sector is expected to continue its decline, reflecting weak global demand, the imposition of trade tariffs, and rising competition from lab-grown alternatives,” the report noted.
Secondary industries are predicted to grow by 2.1% in 2025, down from 3.0% in 2024. Manufacturing is set to contract by 1.4%, driven by a 21.5% fall in meat processing due to reduced slaughtering, and a 35.4% drop in basic non-ferrous metals output amid lower copper processing volumes and subdued prices.
Electricity and water supply is projected to increase by 12.3%, supported by higher hydroelectric generation and new solar capacity, while construction is expected to grow by 8.5%, underpinned by mining-related and public sector projects.
The tertiary sector is forecast to expand by 4.6% in 2025, led by wholesale and retail trade at 7.0%, transport and storage at 8.5%, and steady gains in public administration and health services.
