…country to add about 2.29 million people by 2053
Namibia’s population is projected to increase from 2.98 million in 2023 to 3.47 million by 2030, adding nearly 494,000 people over seven years, according to the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA).
The country’s population is expected to continue growing over the following two decades, reaching 5.02 million by 2050 and 5.26 million by 2053.
Overall, Namibia is projected to add about 2.29 million people between 2023 and 2053, increasing demand for housing, education, healthcare, employment and other public services.
“The population is projected to increase steadily from 2,978,967 in 2023 to 3,472,879 in 2030, representing an increase of approximately 493,900 people over the period,” the NSA said.
“The population is expected to continue to grow over the subsequent decades, reaching 5,018,893 by 2050 and 5,264,514 by 2053.”
The projections also point to a significant expansion of Namibia’s working-age population, with the number of people aged 15 to 59 expected to increase from about 1.67 million in 2023 to 3.07 million by 2053.
Namibia is, however, expected to retain a relatively young population. The number of children under 18 is projected to increase from about 1.28 million in 2023 to 1.89 million by 2053, while the youth population aged 15 to 34 is expected to rise from about 1.01 million to 1.75 million.
At the same time, the country’s elderly population is projected to grow significantly, with the number of people aged 60 and above expected to increase from about 202,000 in 2023 to 592,000 by 2053.
The age dependency ratio is projected to decline from 78.5 dependants for every 100 working-age people in 2023 to 71.4 by 2053, although it is expected to remain relatively high.
“It creates a high child dependency ratio that places a heavy burden on the working-age population and constrains the provision of basic needs and social services,” the report said.
“By 2053, the population pyramid of Namibia will continue to reflect a relatively young population, though it will be gradually ageing as birth rates decline and life expectancy increases.”
Despite the increase in the overall population, Namibia’s population growth rate is projected to slow from 2.3% between 2023 and 2024 to 1.6% by 2053, mainly due to declining fertility.
The total fertility rate is projected to fall from 3.9 children per woman in 2023 to three children by 2053.
Life expectancy is also expected to improve, rising from 68.4 years in 2023 to 73 years by 2053 under the medium projection scenario.
The NSA said the projections, based on the 2023 Population and Housing Census, are intended to support national planning, policy formulation and resource allocation, particularly in areas such as education, healthcare, housing and social protection.
