Namibia’s Sixth National Development Plan (NDP6) sets ambitious targets for 7% GDP growth and increased employment, but analysts warn that the same structural challenges which undermined NDP5 could again derail progress.
These include economic growth without job creation, stalled industrialisation, unequal access to services, and weak implementation at the local level. Without institutional reform and fiscal discipline, experts say NDP6 could fall short of its aims.
Simonis Storm Junior Economist Almandro Jansen said NDP5 failed to effectively link economic expansion to job creation.
“Mining, construction and finance contributed to growth, but these sectors were capital-intensive and absorbed little labour. These high-performing sectors were technologically driven, yielding limited labour absorption despite robust output,” Jansen said.
He noted that the labour market remained disconnected from structural transformation, with high youth unemployment and a persistent informal sector masking deeper vulnerabilities in rural and peri-urban labour dynamics. According to Jansen, productivity gains did not lead to job growth due to low skills intensity and underdeveloped local value chains.
“The failure to shift from an extractive economy to industrial production also limited diversification,” he said, adding that high input costs, poor infrastructure, weak supply chains and a lack of industrial finance were key barriers.
“Although NDP5’s ‘Growth at Home’ policy aimed to promote local manufacturing, few projects reached scale,” Jansen said.
On education, Jansen said reforms under NDP5 had not kept pace with the demands of the future labour market. He pointed to a continuing mismatch between graduates’ qualifications and employer needs, particularly in technical and digital sectors.
Turning to NDP6’s growth targets, Jansen said: “This growth is expected to come not from commodity windfalls alone, but from export-led reindustrialisation, green economy investments, and greater integration of youth and MSMEs into the formal economy. However, the risks to this growth path are non-trivial. Namibia’s industrial base remains weak.”
He observed that manufacturing had hovered around 11% of GDP for over a decade. “Despite renewed emphasis on local value addition, the ecosystem for scalable, job-rich industrialisation remains underdeveloped. Efforts to lift manufacturing’s share to 18% by 2030 will require more than infrastructure and tax incentives — it demands sector-specific industrial policy, stronger local procurement frameworks, and focused investment in capabilities,” Jansen said.
Political scientist and sociologist Henning Melber echoed concerns over Namibia’s industrial prospects, attributing part of the problem to foreign control of mineral resources.
“There is a lack of investment in local value-added processing, partly due to the ownership of mines by foreign companies who export raw materials for further processing abroad,” Melber said.
He also noted that the labour market remained inaccessible even to university graduates and stressed the need to prioritise vocational training. “A higher level of general school education is a good investment, but then the further career could benefit from vocational training more than academic courses,” Melber said.
Jansen, commenting on health services, pointed to urban-rural disparities and underfunded support for low-income and female populations. Melber added that the benefits of healthcare remain unevenly distributed.
“Good health services benefit the well-off who can afford private insurance. Ordinary people often do not even get life-saving treatments due to a lack of provisions,” Melber said.
On environmental sustainability, Jansen observed that resource extraction intensified during NDP5 without adequate regulation or preparation for a just energy transition. Melber criticised a perceived policy shift away from renewables.
“It seems as if green hydrogen is no longer a priority. Oil and gas now seem more attractive despite climate risks,” Melber said.
Jansen also identified weak governance and implementation capacity as a major stumbling block under NDP5. “Subnational governments lacked resources, capacity and planning tools. Many mandates for housing, water and sanitation stalled. Decentralisation remained incomplete, limiting adaptive implementation and feedback loops,” he said.
Melber agreed, stating that local-level strategy and delivery remain weak. “Namibia’s decentralisation strategy has failed to invest in the necessary local and regional capacities,” he said.
He also warned that judicial delays in corruption cases are undermining public confidence. “A justice system can only be as responsive as there are claimants. Long court delays and occasional political interference damage the rule of law,” said Melber.
While NDP6 introduces stronger performance tracking mechanisms and aligns more closely with Vision 2030, Jansen warned that it still lacks detailed fiscal guidance and remains heavily reliant on uncertain public-private partnerships.
“Without deeper reforms to public finance, procurement, and local governance, execution will remain the weakest link,” he said.
