Namibia’s vehicle market opened 2026 on a firm footing, with 1,005 units sold in January, marking the strongest January performance in a decade and a 4.0% increase from the 966 units recorded in January 2025.
According to Simonis Storm economist Almandro Jansen, while the start to the year is encouraging, sales moderated compared with the final months of 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, volumes declined by 11.7%, falling below the three-month moving average, a pattern he said is typical for January following strong year-end demand.
“January’s moderation reflects seasonal normalisation rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. On an annual basis, both passenger and commercial segments remain in expansionary territory, confirming that underlying demand remains resilient,” Jansen said.
Passenger vehicle sales declined by 8.5% month-on-month to 495 units from 541 in December. However, on a year-on-year basis, the segment grew by 5.5%, supported by improved vehicle availability and easing financing conditions during 2025.
Jansen noted that last year’s gradual interest rate moderation has begun filtering through to household borrowing costs, helping to stabilise consumer demand despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
Commercial vehicle sales fell by 14.6% month-on-month to 510 units from 597 in December, but annual growth remained positive at 2.6%. Jansen said commercial vehicle performance is often viewed as a forward-looking indicator of economic activity.
“Commercial vehicle sales tend to lead broader economic cycles by roughly 12 months. The sustained strength recorded through much of 2025 provides a constructive signal for economic activity in 2026, particularly if business confidence and capital expenditure intentions remain intact,” he said.
Demand continues to be driven by logistics, energy services, agriculture and mining, reflecting Namibia’s resource-oriented growth profile and expanding trade corridors.
Jansen added that the construction sector presents upside potential, particularly if final investment decisions in green hydrogen and offshore oil and gas projects materialise at scale.
Within the commercial segment, light commercial vehicles (LCVs) remained dominant at 440 units, up 6% year-on-year.
Medium commercial vehicles rose by 40% year-on-year to 28 units, heavy commercial vehicles increased by 150% to 15 units, and extra-heavy commercial vehicles jumped by 238% to 27 units, although Jansen cautioned that these gains reflect low base effects.
Dealerships accounted for 96.82% of total sales, equivalent to 973 units, while rental companies contributed 32 units, or 3.18% of the market, as operators position for anticipated tourism growth. The public sector recorded no purchases, in line with ongoing fiscal consolidation.
Jansen said broader credit dynamics remain supportive. Private Sector Credit Extension growth eased slightly to 4.4% year-on-year in December 2025 but averaged 4.9% for the year, the strongest performance since 2019.
“Instalment sale and leasing credit expanded by 18.5% year-on-year, remaining the fastest-growing segment. Capital is clearly flowing towards productive movable assets such as vehicles and machinery rather than fixed property, which is structurally supportive for vehicle demand into 2026,” he said.
