Rising fuel and transport costs could drive further increases in food prices in Namibia over the coming months, as higher distribution expenses spread across the economy, according to Standard Bank Namibia.
Standard Bank Group Economist Helena Mboti said transport costs had become the largest contributor to the country’s inflation rate, raising concerns about their impact on the prices of essential goods and services.
In her October 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) review, Mboti said transport inflation accelerated to 16.5% year-on-year in October, compared with 14.9% in September and 2.1% in October 2025.
Transport contributed 2.5 percentage points to Namibia’s headline inflation rate of 5.6%, compared with just 0.3 percentage points during the corresponding period last year.
The increase was driven primarily by higher fuel prices and public transport costs, with the operation of personal transport recording inflation of 22.7%, while the public transport equipment category increased by 15%.
Mboti said the significance of transport as an input cost across the economy meant that higher fuel and transport prices were likely to affect other consumer goods, particularly food.
Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation increased to 4.8% in October from 4.0% in September, reflecting growing pressure on household food expenditure.
The review identified dairy products as one of the main contributors, with milk, cheese and eggs recording annual inflation of 8.8% following foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) disruptions affecting livestock and dairy production.
Although meat prices remained 1.8% below their levels a year earlier, Mboti said inflationary pressures within the category had increased, indicating that supply constraints associated with FMD were beginning to affect consumer prices.
Fruit and vegetable inflation also accelerated to 2.3% and 4.8%, respectively, with rising transport costs likely contributing to the increases.
Mboti warned that the combination of elevated transport costs, FMD-related supply disruptions and potential El Niño-related agricultural challenges could sustain food inflation into 2027.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 1.0 percentage point to headline inflation in October, up from 0.8 percentage points in September and 0.9 percentage points in October 2025.
The economist said much of the increase in fuel prices during 2026 had been driven by geopolitical risk premiums in international oil markets rather than significant disruptions to physical oil supplies.
Brent crude oil prices rose above US$110 per barrel for approximately two weeks, reaching a peak of US$117 before declining to around US$94 per barrel on 5 November 2026.
According to Mboti, the decline in global oil prices could provide some near-term relief, although renewed geopolitical tensions could reverse the trend and place further pressure on domestic inflation.
She warned that another escalation in geopolitical tensions could push Brent crude prices back above US$110 per barrel, increasing transport and distribution costs across the economy.
Meanwhile, housing inflation eased to 3.9% in October from 4.2% in September, although utility costs continued to rise.
Water supply inflation reached 6.1%, while electricity, gas and other fuels recorded inflation of 4.6%, reflecting continued pressure on utility prices amid dry weather conditions.
Core inflation declined to 3.7% in October from 4.0% in September, indicating that price pressures remained concentrated in transport and food rather than being widespread across the economy.
Standard Bank maintained its forecast for average headline inflation of approximately 4.35% in 2026, rising to around 5.2% in 2027.
Mboti said food inflation was expected to begin easing during the second quarter of 2027, provided rainfall conditions improved and agricultural production recovered.
Transport inflation is also expected to moderate during the second half of 2027 as the effects of earlier fuel price increases diminish.
However, she cautioned that continued FMD disruptions, unfavourable weather conditions and renewed increases in international oil prices could delay the expected easing of inflationary pressures.
