By Tio Nakasole
Freight in Namibia is almost a one-way storyline. Namibia moves more than seven in every ten tonnes of goods on roads, whose infrastructures, according to 2024 Statista, are rated as the best in Africa. Relatively, the durability of what exists is genuinely strong.
Namibia is ranked first in Southern Africa and 45th out of 202 markets globally for transport infrastructure quality, ahead of neighbouring countries such as Angola, Botswana, and Zambia.
Despite businesses operating in Namibia often preferring road transport to rail transport, the quality of infrastructure being traded and its lifespan become compromised due to cross-border traders which utilise the seaport of entry.
Another “going concern” is Namibia has the third-highest road death rate in the region, behind only Zimbabwe and Malawi. High road fatalities expose the difference between having good roads and having a safe transport system to accommodate the nascent industries.
The nucleus of the question becomes why the same confidence has not been extended to rail infrastructure in order to drive efficiency, competitiveness and comparative advantage.
Snail Pace and Under-optimisation
Out of those tonnes moved inland this year, road carries about 79%, rail 21%, and air a rounding error. That under-optimisation is not new, but it is hardening. The road freight is projected to increase by 6.3% in 2026 and keep growing steadily to 2035.
In contrast, rail is set to contract by 7.9% this year alone, weighed down by an ageing 2,628 km narrow-gauge network and a run of derailments, which involved hazardous cargo, that have conscripted mining traffic back onto trucks.
This hampers transport speeds, wreaking undesirable customer experiences for future use, as trains have to travel slower to reduce the chances of derailments and accidents.
Namibian ports tell a better story, for now. Walvis Bay’s tonnage is set to grow at an average 9.3% a year through 2030, as it is expecting a boost to be driven by uranium, copper, lead and zinc exports and by capital-goods imports for the offshore oil and gas build-out.
Whereas the Luderitz, Namibia’s second-largest port, continues to be capturing a surge in maritime traffic and bunkering demand as a result of Middle East tensions, which compelled some vessels to bypass the Suez Canal and reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, positioning Namibia as a strategic regional logistics hub.
Worthy of note, in November 2025, the Namibian Port Authority, together with the EU and the Port of Rotterdam, signed a USD715,000 service agreement to advance the expansion of Luderitz Port, targeted specifically for the development of a green minerals terminal for the export of green hydrogen and minerals like lithium, manganese and graphite.
That growth projection demands a complementary freight and shipping infrastructure maintenance mode and expansions.
More Headwinds Than Tailwinds
Air freight is the weakest link of all. The pharmaceutical industry is the driver of the air freight sub-sector, given Namibia’s weak domestic manufacturing capabilities as well as its reliance on pressure- and temperature-controlled transport.
In 2022, it contracted down to the liquidation of Air Namibia, and since then it has not recovered: in 2025, the volume fell and is anticipated to drop further by 6.1% this year.
Then, the government did not retreat; it answered with Namibia Air, a new national carrier scheduled to be launched by late 2026, explicitly framed around restoring both passenger and cargo connectivity. It is a necessary bet but a bet nonetheless, given how the last carrier ended.
Namibia is not short of ambition. Sectors such as agriculture and mining chains benefit from efficiencies and reduced transport costs.
Building more roads is important, but a one-sided reliance can compound road-user risk through congestion and accident exposure while pushing up logistics costs that are ultimately absorbed into cost-push inflation.
Instead, it will simply entrench the mode that is already ageing fastest under the strain. When the freight mode created is allowed to become an inelastic model, the rising cost to be incurred will become inescapable.
When can the rubber meet the road?
The litmus test for Namibia’s freight activities beyond 2030 is not whether Walvis Bay grows or Namibia Air emerges; they will, but whether rail, air and the ports work in harmony and bear the reasonable cost instead of each carrying the load alone.
The way out here is a follow-through in terms of the modes that would actually offset the industry’s growth and demand. Rerouting Namibia’s shipping should not be designed for logistical nicety but to future-proof freight activities for sustainability, which is a better living tomorrow.
Namibia’s multimodal freight strategy should move along with the scale and composition of new industries’ demand and supply while striking a good balance at modernising and expanding ailing infrastructures for a broader national interest.
Tio Nakasole is an analyst at MONASA Advisory and Associates. His insights draw from his experience in economic and policy analysis. The views expressed do not represent those of his employer. – theoerastus@gmail.com
