By Tio Nakasole
Over the past 35 years, Namibia’s industries, despite weathering the storm of the financial crisis of 2008, COVID-19, and trade pressure, have shifted slightly to that of diversification, value creation and addition.
The tempo of industrial growth has alternated between moments of acceleration and stagnation, reflecting both global market shifts and domestic structural challenges.
Contemporarily, the economy is experiencing a tepid growth of 2.6% in 2025 as compared to 3.7% in 2024 based on the Fitch Solutions forecast. Despite the current commitment to investment, certain sectors remain untransformed.
On the balance of industrial growth, the economy has been anchored in its natural endowments, such as diamonds, uranium, fish, agriculture, and livestock. Although these sectors gave life and generated revenue, their contribution remained limited, and structural transformation is stalled.
Industry’s Trend
First off, mining and quarrying have been major contributors to our GDP, accounting for over 14.4% in 1990 and 13.3% in 2024. The mining industry expanded by a moderate 2.0% annually after contracting by 1.3% in 2024.
According to Fitch Solutions, the growth in domestic output of uranium (which overtook diamonds as the country’s main export in 2024) will slow from an estimated 2.1% in 2024 to 1.9% in 2025, further capping export growth.
Additionally, the global demand for natural diamonds has fallen sharply since 2022—partly due to growing competition from lab-grown gems—resulting in a prolonged slump in prices. A recovery is looking increasingly unlikely over the short term, as trade tensions weigh on growth in major developed markets and China.
This means that diamond giant De Beers, which already reported an 11% decline in output from global operations in the first quarter of 2025, will continue to limit mining volumes in Namibia if there are no other alternatives.
Second, the overall GDP contribution of forestry, fishery, and agriculture was 7.29% in 2024 compared to 10% to 15% in 1990. Accordingly, the contribution of livestock farming to GDP was 4.6% in 1990 compared to a stagnant 2.5% in 2024, and the contribution of crop farming and forestry alone to GDP was roughly 2.4% in 1990 compared to a mild decline of 2.1% in 2024.
Last but not least, the fishing industry is not exempt from the gradual growth; in 1990, it made up only 2.1% of our GDP, but by 2024, it had grown to 2.7%.
Thirdly, the manufacturing sector contributed roughly 10.4% of our GDP in 1990; however, after thirty years, the sector only changed by 0.2%, reaching 10.6% in 2024. Manufacturers depend much more on exploiting value-added services.
Thus, it is imperative to recognize that services are not peripheral activities but rather an integral part of a functioning and healthy economy and lie at the heart of that economy.
Fifth, in 1990, wholesale and retail commerce accounted for 6.8% of our GDP; by 2024, that percentage had dropped to roughly 11.4%.
Sixth, the tourism sector used to account for around 2.5 percent of our GDP, but by 2024, its growth had accelerated to approximately 8%. Despite being severely halted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019–2022, there is a promising indication of recovery that should be maximized.
These areas are so critical for the government and decision-making bodies whenever setting their policy and development plan to have a thorough comparative analysis before setting their priorities.
Resources and investments of great value ought to be channelled into sectors that have proven in the past that they have the potential to increase both our GDP and opportunities.
For example, industrialized countries such as the United States, China, and India are known to benchmark their intervention programmes based on their industry’s trend because that is what contributes to the fiscus and allocates funding to what sustains them.
Contemporarily, Namibia recorded its 17th consecutive quarter of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, at 1.6% since the second quarter of 2025.
Although we find ourselves facing another consecutive growth, global trade restrictions and technological advancements continue to slow the pace of some industries that drive some of our export products, such as mining.
Apart from the wholesale and retail trade sector, which has been the main driver of growth, contributing about 0.5%. Sectors such as agriculture contracted sharply in the first quarter, and mining is barely growing. Meanwhile, fiscal space is shrinking; this is limiting the government’s ability to stimulate the economy. The services sector—healthcare, trade, and retail—is keeping the economy afloat at the onset.
However, this may not be enough. Services growth without strong industries behind it risks becoming consumption without production. Niche industries such as green hydrogen and oil and gas created excitement, but delays in commercialization mean the benefits remain on the horizon, not in the present.
Fitch Solutions affirmed that investment in oil and gas projects like Venus and Kudu is the main driver of the sigh of relief, which may only be projected to rebound in 2026 to 3.7%.
These investments could bring billions into the economy, boost logistics, services, and infrastructure, and create jobs. But the real burning question is this: will we merely extract oil and gas, or will we turn them into platforms for industrial transformation?
In addition to exporting crude, value creation entails investing in petrochemicals, energy services, and refining.
It entails creating supply chains that enable Namibian businesses to supply technology, equipment, and logistics instead of relying on outside contractors. It means linking oil and gas wealth to sectors like manufacturing, tourism, and agriculture so that growth is not just fast but also inclusive and sustainable.
Taken together, the industries’ trend shows that traditional sectors like agriculture, forestry, and fishing remain stagnant, while service-oriented sectors such as wholesale and retail trade and tourism have experienced growth.
In applying a praxis perspective, it becomes clear that the economy must not only recognize its natural endowments but also actively translate these assets into broader, value-added opportunities.
Tio Nakasole, Analyst at Monasa Advisory and Associates. The views expressed do not represent those of his employer. -theoerastus@gmail.com
