By Neville Ntema
Against the backdrop of global markets in flux, imagine an investor nervously scrolling through their phone, eyes darting over headlines filled with policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and consumer behaviour shifts.
Each alert brings a fresh wave of anxiety with tariff shocks, diplomatic standoffs, and rapid technological change shaking confidence. Volatility has become the norm, and uncertainty is likely to remain with us for some time.
When faced with turbulence, many investors get distracted by the noise. Yet it is precisely in these moments that discipline matters most.
At Momentum Investments, we believe uncertainty highlights the importance of Outcome-Based Investing, also known as OBI, which is an approach that focuses on achieving long-term goals rather than reacting to every headline.
The Anchor of Outcomes
Volatility can obscure the fundamentals that truly drive value. Instead of chasing short-term certainty, OBI anchors portfolios to outcomes that matter.
By focusing on enduring economic and sectoral trends, we evaluate the long-term potential of assets across institutional, corporate, and retail portfolios. This disciplined focus empowers investors to remain resilient even in unsettled markets.
For clients, this translates into tangible milestones such as funding a child’s higher education, securing a comfortable retirement, or achieving financial independence. These outcomes make the discipline of OBI relatable and reinforce the pursuit of long-term success.
A Turning Point in Interest Rates
As 2025 unfolds, global interest rates are at a pivotal point. Following the aggressive hikes of 2022 and 2023 aimed at taming inflation, central banks in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union are beginning to move toward more measured cuts. In August, United States consumer prices rose 2.9 per cent year on year, with core inflation at 3.1 per cent, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics.
Drawing parallels with past cycles such as the early 2000s and the post-2008 financial crisis, history shows that patient investors who focused on outcomes rather than headlines captured significant value. This context highlights how maintaining discipline during rate shifts can foster resilience and unlock opportunities for value-oriented investors.
This shift is unfolding against the backdrop of record global debt. A Moody’s analysis shows that worldwide debt ballooned to over US$307 trillion by 2023, exposing economies to tighter financing conditions. While inflation in advanced markets has moderated, emerging economies still face structural vulnerabilities, including weaker revenue bases and rising debt servicing costs.
Lessons from Emerging Markets
Namibia provides a clear case study. The Bank of Namibia has kept its repo rate steady at 6.75 per cent, emphasising the importance of policy stability for households and businesses in a volatile environment. Inflation is forecast to average 3.8 per cent in 2025 and rise modestly to 4.2 per cent in 2026. Stability offers predictability, but Namibia, like many emerging markets, must still navigate the challenges of global debt and shifting capital flows.
Staying the Course
The lesson for corporate institutions and retail investors is consistent. The best defence against volatility is discipline. Markets will always fluctuate, but long-term success depends on focusing on the outcomes that matter rather than being swayed by daily swings.
Outcome Based Investing provides that anchor. By aligning portfolios with long-term objectives and filtering out noise, investors are better positioned not only to endure uncertain times but also to capture growth opportunities ahead.
* Neville Ntema is a Senior Client Fund Manager at Momentum Investments
