The 21% tariff increase on Namibian exports to the United States is expected to drive up prices for American consumers and importers sourcing products from Namibia.
The tariff scheme, announced on Wednesday evening by US President Donald Trump, is part of a broader strategy aimed at addressing perceived trade imbalances, protecting domestic industries, and countering wage suppression in the US economy.
Rodney Hoaeb from the Namibia Trade Forum cautioned that the increased tariff could negatively impact Namibia’s industrialisation efforts.
“This can affect our position as an industrialising country, as products will be redirected to nations with lower tariffs to change their origin and benefit from reduced rates. Likewise, South African companies may attempt to use Namibia for the same purpose,” Hoaeb told The Brief.
Over the past five years, Namibia has exported goods worth N$16.9 billion to the US, resulting in a trade surplus of N$3.4 billion after importing N$13.4 billion in goods from the US during the same period.
The largest trade gap was recorded in 2024, with Namibian exports to the US reaching N$5.1 billion, while imports from the US stood at N$3 billion, leading to a N$2.1 billion surplus.
The new tariffs could render Namibian products uncompetitive in the US market, forcing the country to explore alternative trade partners. Namibia’s key exports to the US include beef, fish, diamonds, and uranium.
“These sectors are crucial to Namibia. We can engage other potential markets for these products. Subsidies in the form of financial support and cheaper raw material inputs could help mitigate the impact,” Hoaeb said.
However, securing alternative markets for luxury commodities such as diamonds and gold presents challenges. Trade protectionism measures, such as tariffs, are commonly employed by countries to safeguard domestic industries that generate local employment and rely on locally sourced raw materials.
Trump justified the tariffs by citing Namibia’s 42% import duty on US goods.
“Large and persistent annual US goods trade deficits have led to the hollowing out of our manufacturing base, inhibited our ability to scale advanced domestic manufacturing capacity, undermined critical supply chains, and rendered our defense-industrial base dependent on foreign adversaries,” he said.
Hoaeb explained that Namibia imposed high tariffs on US imports to shield local markets from a potential influx of American products. “If we lower these tariffs, either domestic or regional SACU (Southern African Customs Union) products will be affected,” he noted.
The tariffs could significantly impact the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has enabled Namibia to export over 6,400 products tariff-free to the US. While AGOA-related exports account for only 2.7% of Namibia’s total exports, the policy shift could severely affect key sectors such as uranium and diamonds.
“The trade agreement was non-reciprocal, meaning we enjoyed better tariff concessions without the US expecting the same commitment from us. However, the imposed directive stifles our manufacturing efforts as a developing country,” Hoaeb added.
Economist Salomo Hei warned that the decision could have broader economic consequences, potentially triggering a recession in the US. He suggested that Namibia could pivot to alternative markets, such as Norway, which has struggled to meet its beef import quota.
“There’s a huge demand for Namibian beef across the globe, as well as for uranium. A significant portion of Namibian uranium was previously exported to the US. What does this mean for the US economy when accessing these products becomes more expensive?” Hei questioned.
