Merck is walking a tightrope with its Covid-19 pill, expecting to reap billions in revenue while still making the medicine affordable to the world.
The pharmaceutical giant’s antiviral programme became the first pill to succeed in a late-stage study. The drug, called molnupiravir, halved the risk of hsopitalisation and deaths compared to a placebo for people with mild to moderate Covid-19 who are at high risk of severe illness.
Merck now finds itself in a position to make molnupiravir one of its most profitable drugs, with industry analysts forecasting the company will make about $22 billion (about R327 billion) in revenue from the drug through 2030. At the same time, to be an effective tool in the pandemic, it’ll have to work to make it accessible to the people who need it the most around the world.
Global inequity has been a hallmark of the world’s Covid-19 response. Moderna, for instance, has faced criticism that it has prioritised rich countries in making supply deals for its coronavirus vaccine. More than 50 countries and territories, mainly in Africa and the Middle East, have vaccinated less than 10% of their population as of the end of September.
Merck hopes to make billions while not leaving behind the most vulnerable populations. While the US government is paying $712 per treatment course, Merck is allowing generic manufacturers to make its pill for lower-income markets, where they will likely charge a fraction of that cost.
Merck has reached agreements with eight generic drug companies, allowing each of them to sell molnupiravir in more than 100 low- and middle-income countries. These generic companies will compete on price, with one report saying they are expected to charge about $12 (about R178) to $15 (about R223) per treatment course.
Analysts expect molnupiravir to turn into a top-selling drug for Merck. The Bernstein analyst Ronny Gal projected in an October 6 research note that Merck will make $5.3 billion (around R79 billion) in 2022 sales for the drug, with about 80% of that coming from the US market. Gal forecasted $22 billion (around R327 billion) in total molnupiravir revenue for Merck through 2030.-moneyweb
