Namibia remains inadequately prepared to govern its emerging oil and gas industry, with weaknesses in institutional capacity, revenue management, transparency and corruption prevention posing risks ahead of commercial production, according to a new assessment by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).
The IPPR’s November 2026 Namibia Oil and Gas Governance Readiness Index, titled Before the First Barrel, found that although Namibia has established a legal and regulatory framework for petroleum activities, significant gaps remain in implementing and enforcing governance requirements.
The assessment evaluated eight areas of petroleum governance using a five-point scoring system, based on publicly available evidence reviewed up to 31 October 2026.
Legal and regulatory frameworks received the highest average score of 3.27 out of five, while corruption prevention and integrity recorded the lowest score of 2.00.
Institutional capacity scored 2.29, licensing transparency and contract governance 2.40, revenue management and fiscal accountability 2.22, and environmental and social safeguards 2.53.
Local content and economic inclusion scored 2.10, while public oversight, participation and transparency received 2.11.
The IPPR identified the gap between existing legislation and its implementation as a major challenge, warning that Namibia’s petroleum governance systems require strengthening before commercial oil production begins.
Despite the existence of petroleum legislation, taxation arrangements and environmental regulations, the report found that information on petroleum agreements, licensing decisions and beneficial ownership remains fragmented and insufficiently accessible to the public.
The assessment also raised concerns about regulatory independence, funding, enforcement capacity and institutional coordination as the government restructures upstream petroleum governance around the Upstream Petroleum Unit (UPU).
According to the report, the Petroleum Affairs Directorate received N$9.6 million in operational funding during the 2025/26 financial year, while the UPU was allocated N$20 million in the 2026/27 national budget.
However, the UPU’s statutory framework had not been finalised by the assessment’s cut-off date of 31 October 2026.
Revenue management was identified as another area requiring urgent attention, with the IPPR calling for petroleum-specific financial controls covering company payments, state participation, borrowing and contingent liabilities.
The report also recommended binding rules governing deposits, withdrawals, investment oversight and auditing for the proposed Welwitschia Sovereign Wealth Fund.
It warned that petroleum-related borrowing and state guarantees could expose public finances to additional risks if adequate transparency and parliamentary oversight mechanisms were not established.
The assessment cited projections from the 2026/27 Mid-Year Budget Review showing that Namibia’s public debt was expected to reach N$201.7 billion, equivalent to 68.7% of gross domestic product, by the end of the financial year.
The IPPR recommended that petroleum-related borrowing and guarantees be publicly disclosed and subjected to parliamentary scrutiny.
Environmental and social safeguards received an average score of 2.53, with offshore oil-spill response capacity identified as a significant concern.
The report cited a November 2024 assessment prepared for the Global Initiative for West, Central and Southern Africa, which found that government oil-spill response equipment was largely obsolete, while Tier 2 response capacity was very limited and national Tier 3 capacity was insufficient.
The IPPR also identified weaknesses in cumulative environmental impact assessments, monitoring and enforcement.
On local content, the report acknowledged Cabinet’s approval of the National Upstream Petroleum Local Content Policy on 4 August 2026 as a positive development.
However, it said the policy needed to be supported by enforceable requirements, measurable employment and procurement targets, skills development programmes and transparent company-level reporting.
The assessment found that public oversight remained constrained by fragmented access to petroleum information and delays in implementing the Access to Information Act, which had not commenced by 31 October 2026.
It also identified gaps in petroleum-specific anti-corruption measures, including verified asset declarations, disclosure requirements for politically exposed persons and controls to prevent conflicts of interest.
To address these weaknesses, the IPPR recommended the publication of signed petroleum agreements and beneficial ownership information, alongside the establishment of a publicly accessible petroleum information portal.
The institute also called for stronger regulatory independence, improved revenue management controls and increased investment in offshore emergency response capabilities.
It further recommended that Namibia join the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) to strengthen public disclosure, accountability and multi-stakeholder oversight of the petroleum sector.
The IPPR warned that governance reforms should be implemented before commercial production begins, as rising petroleum revenues and increased financial and political pressures could make existing weaknesses more difficult to address.
