By Lot Ndamanomhata
Fuel and travel costs now account for more than the entire rise in inflation, leaving households, businesses and policymakers to ask how long the pressure will last.
Namibia’s annual inflation rate climbed to 5.4% in September 2026, up from 5.0% in August and 3.5% a year earlier, according to the Namibia Statistics Agency’s latest Consumer Price Index Bulletin. August’s 5.0% was already the highest reading since February 2024, and September’s figure matches the January 2024 level.
Transport is the driver
Transport inflation hit 14.9% year on year and contributed 2.2 percentage points to headline inflation, more than any other category. A year ago its contribution was 0.2 points. That jump alone is larger than the 1.9-point rise in headline inflation over the period, meaning the rest of the basket, on balance, became slightly less inflationary.
The main culprit is fuel. Petrol and diesel prices were up 30.4% from September 2025, when they were still falling by 2.1%. The cost of operating personal vehicles rose 20.1%, and licence and registration fees added to the burden, up 8.7%. Public transport rose 15.0%, with air fares up 22.1%, rail 15.7%, taxis 15.4% and buses 12.6%.
Retail prices in September averaged about N$25.60 to N$25.80 per litre for petrol and N$28.35 to N$28.55 for diesel, depending on the zone.
Other pressures
Housing, water, electricity and fuels, the largest part of the basket at 28.4%, was the second-biggest contributor at 1.0 percentage point. Its annual inflation rose to 4.2% on higher rentals, maintenance and energy costs. Food, at 4.0%, eased from 4.9% a year ago, helped by slowing meat prices (3.3%, with beef at 2.6%). Communication was the only division in deflation, at -0.9%.
Monthly inflation slowed to 0.4% from 0.6% in August. Monthly transport inflation also cooled, to 1.9% from 3.7%, a sign that the pace of fuel-driven increases may be easing even though annual comparisons remain high.
Windhoek (Zone 2) had the highest annual inflation at 6.2%, with transport up 16.1% there. Zone 3 (the south and coast) recorded 5.8% and the northern Zone 1 recorded 4.3%.
What it means
Households. Transport and housing together make up over 40% of the basket, so higher fuel prices reach commuters, taxi and bus passengers, and eventually shelf prices as freight costs pass through. Fixed-income earners are hit hardest. Urban households in Windhoek are feeling the pressure most.
Underlying inflation is lower. Core inflation, which excludes most food and energy items, was 4.0%, 1.4 points below the headline rate. That gap suggests the surge is concentrated in fuel and transport rather than broad-based. If fuel prices stabilise, headline inflation could converge toward the core rate, though second-round effects such as higher transport fares and delivery costs could keep prices elevated.
Goods versus services. Goods inflation (5.8%) is running ahead of services (4.7%), consistent with an energy-led shock rather than demand-driven overheating.
Policy and outlook. The 12-month average inflation rate is 3.7%, and the fiscal-year average (April to September) is 4.4%, so the picture is less severe than the monthly headline suggests. Even so, inflation at its highest in nearly three years will put the central bank’s price-stability mandate in focus and complicate decisions on interest rates. Because the shock is largely driven by fuel prices, which are influenced by global oil markets and the exchange rate, policymakers have limited direct levers.
What to watch. The October inflation figures are due on 5 November 2026. Analysts will look for whether monthly transport inflation keeps cooling, whether food prices stay subdued, and whether higher transport costs begin spreading into other categories.
Meat: a new risk the September data does not yet capture
The easing in meat prices noted above predates a major shock. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was confirmed in Namibia’s designated FMD-free zone in the southern ||Kharas Region in late September, and authorities suspended the movement, import and export of cloven-hoofed animals and their products nationwide. Because the outbreak was detected on 22 September, it falls almost entirely outside September’s price survey, so its effects will first show up in the October figures due on 5 November.
The outbreak is still growing. The ministry reports 129 positive samples and 17 infected farms as of 6 October, and a second outbreak has now been confirmed in the Zambezi Region.
The impact on shelf prices could pull in two directions:
- Upward pressure on local supply. Slaughtering is barred in the red zone (//Kharas), and butcheries and meat suppliers are running out of stock. Earlier in the outbreak, residents queued at Windhoek butcheries in panic buying, which can lift prices quickly. Shortages and stockpiling are classic short-term price drivers, and substitution toward chicken and fish could push those prices up too.
- Downward pressure on producer prices. Export markets have closed. The EU has temporarily suspended imports of fresh beef, sheep and goat meat from Namibia, and the UK has withdrawn authorisation for fresh beef imports. If export-bound animals and meat are diverted to the domestic market, local supply could rise and partly offset shortage-driven increases. Historically, FMD-related export bans have pushed down livestock prices for producers.
The net effect on consumer meat prices is not yet clear, and there is no post-outbreak price data to confirm either direction. Meat is a small part of the basket, but it is a politically sensitive item, and the cost to the wider economy may be larger than the price effect alone. Simonis Storm estimates the outbreak could cost about 12,000 job years in 2026 and 2027.
The outbreak also has a cross-border dimension. South African industry bodies expect red meat prices there to rise, with lamb and mutton hit hardest because South Africa imports Namibian slaughter lambs, and that could affect prices of Namibian meat sold to or sourced from South Africa.
Possible fuel relief: the US–Russia diesel deal
On the fuel side, there is a potential, though limited, source of relief. President Trump announced that Russia has agreed to supply millions of tons of diesel to the global market over the next several months, and the US Treasury will temporarily waive sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to allow it. The announcement came as a global rise in oil prices, linked to the war with Iran, has pushed diesel to record levels, and diesel prices are also high because Russia and China halted diesel exports to protect domestic supply.
For Namibia, which imports its refined fuel, easing in global diesel markets would eventually feed into the monthly fuel price reviews. Diesel is a key input for freight, mining, agriculture and fishing, so lower prices would benefit transport costs and shelf prices more broadly. It would also help the meat supply chain, which depends on diesel for the transport of livestock and carcasses.
Experts, however, doubt the deal will deliver much. One energy analyst said the extra supply would mostly shuffle oil around without changing prices globally, and another said it is unlikely to make a dent in painfully high prices. The deal is also politically contested and depends on whether Russia delivers.
What it means for the outlook
The two developments push in opposite directions. A global diesel easing, if it materialises, could bring down the fuel-driven transport inflation that currently dominates the headline rate. Meanwhile, the FMD outbreak adds a new and uncertain risk to food prices, which have so far helped keep inflation in check. Even if fuel eases, the headline rate may not fall back toward the 4.0% core rate as quickly as hoped if meat and other food prices rise.
The October CPI release on 5 November will be the first to reflect the outbreak. Analysts will be watching meat and food prices closely, as well as whether the next fuel price reviews show any pass-through from the Russian diesel announcement.
Lot Ndamanomhata is from Ekoka. This article reflects his views and write entirely in his personal capacity.
