By Arlindo Adriano
Every year, more than a million wildebeest, accompanied by zebras and other animals, migrate across the Serengeti Mara ecosystem in search of water and greener pastures.
To us as tourists, watching this spectacular migration may be captivating and beautiful. But to the wildebeest, the journey is not tourism.
It is a matter of life and death. The journey is largely influenced by changes in the environment. However, as the dry season approaches, water and grass become scarce, forcing the herd to move towards greener pastures.
Moving does not necessarily mean that conditions will be easier. The journey comes with enormous risks.
Wildebeest face lions, hyenas, exhaustion and dangerous river crossings where crocodiles patiently wait for an opportunity. Yet remaining behind is equally dangerous because the environment that once sustained them can no longer do so.
This spectacular migration provides an interesting lesson about navigating the macro-environment, both in business and in our personal lives.
When the Environment Changes
In strategic management, the PESTEL framework looks at Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal factors that can affect an organisation.
Businesses have very little control over these external forces but must continuously respond to them.
The wildebeest cannot control rainfall. It cannot negotiate with drought or ask the crocodiles to leave the river. What it can do is respond to the environment around it.
The same applies to businesses. An organisation cannot dictate interest rates, inflation, government policies, technological developments or changes in consumer behaviour.
However, it can monitor these changes and strategically position itself.
As individuals, we face the same reality. We cannot control inflation, unemployment, technological disruption or the direction of the economy, but we can determine how prepared we are to respond.
Yesterday’s Green Pasture Can Become Tomorrow’s Dry Plain
One of the strongest lessons from the migration is that favourable conditions do not remain favourable forever.
The wildebeest leaves an area that once provided everything it needed because circumstances have changed. Businesses should understand the same principle.
A product, business model or competitive advantage that worked for many years may lose its relevance because of technological, economic or social changes.
The same can happen personally. A qualification, skill, job or investment that provides security today might not necessarily provide the same security in future.
Artificial intelligence is a good example. Instead of simply fearing technological disruption, we should be asking how it may affect our careers or businesses and how we can position ourselves to benefit from it.
We should never confuse where we are comfortable today with where we will always be able to survive.
Taking the Leap of Faith
Perhaps the most powerful part of the migration is the river crossing.
The wildebeest reaches a point where greener pastures may lie on the other side, but getting there requires crossing dangerous waters filled with crocodiles.
This resembles many decisions we make in business and life.
Starting a business is risky. Changing careers is risky. Entering another market is risky. Investing is risky.
But sometimes we become so concerned about the risks associated with moving that we forget about the risks associated with remaining where we are.
For the wildebeest, refusing to cross the river because crocodiles are waiting does not necessarily make it safe. Behind it, the grass is disappearing and the water is drying up.
Therefore, taking a leap of faith does not always mean acting recklessly. Sometimes it means understanding that the macro-environment has changed and making a calculated decision to move.
Your Macro-Environment Is Your Radar
The Great Migration demonstrates why understanding the environment around us is important.
For businesses, this means continuously asking: What is happening with customers? What technologies are emerging?
Where is government policy heading? What is happening to inflation and interest rates? How are social behaviours changing?
Individuals should ask similar questions. What is happening in my industry? Which skills are becoming more valuable?
What opportunities are emerging? How exposed are my investments or income to economic changes?
The purpose is not to predict the future perfectly. The wildebeest itself does not know exactly what awaits it at the river.
The purpose is to remain alert and adapt. Perhaps the greatest lesson from the Great Migration is that there is no permanent greener pasture.
Eventually conditions change again and another journey begins. The wildebeest survives not because it controls the Serengeti, but because it responds to it.
Likewise, we cannot control every political decision, economic cycle, technological disruption, social change, environmental challenge or new regulation. What we can control is our ability to observe, prepare, adapt and, when necessary, take the leap of faith.
Sometimes there will be crocodiles in the river. But sometimes the greater danger is staying behind while the grass around you slowly dries.
The question is therefore not only where you are today, but where the environment is moving and whether you are prepared to move with it.
