By Gerhard Kahorekua Mukuahima
As forecasts increasingly point toward the potential development of an El Niño weather pattern in 2026/27, discussion across the agricultural sector is once again turning to drought risks, grazing conditions and water availability.
These concerns are valid. However, focusing exclusively on the weather may cause us to overlook a more important question: how prepared are we for the next climate shock?
For Namibia’s agricultural sector, the greatest threat has never been drought alone. It has been a lack of resilience when drought inevitably arrives.
Agriculture remains one of Namibia’s most important economic and social sectors. While its direct contribution to GDP may be relatively modest, its impact on employment, food security, export earnings and rural livelihoods is profound. For thousands of farming families, agricultural businesses and communities, rainfall patterns influence far more than production cycles. They shape economic opportunity itself.
This is why the conversation around El Niño must move beyond seasonal forecasts and focus instead on long-term resilience.
The reality is that climate volatility is becoming the new normal. Extreme weather events that were once considered exceptional are becoming increasingly frequent. Agricultural businesses can no longer afford to treat drought preparedness as a short-term response. It must become a permanent component of business strategy.
Encouragingly, many producers across Namibia have already begun this shift.
The lessons learned from previous drought cycles have driven significant investment in water infrastructure, improved grazing management, renewable energy solutions and more efficient farming practices. Across the country, producers are increasingly embracing technologies and operating models designed to improve productivity while reducing vulnerability to climate shocks.
These investments are not merely defensive measures. They are strategic business decisions.
In an era of increasing climate uncertainty, resilience has become a source of competitive advantage.
Producers with reliable water infrastructure, stronger rangeland management systems and diversified revenue streams are often better positioned to maintain production, protect profitability and seize opportunities when conditions improve. The farms that survive future drought cycles will not necessarily be the largest or the most established. They will be the ones that are the most adaptable.
Water, in particular, is emerging as agriculture’s most valuable asset.
For many years, land, livestock and machinery were considered the cornerstone investments on a farming operation. Today, access to secure and sustainable water resources is rapidly becoming just as important. Investments in boreholes, storage facilities, solar-powered pumping systems, efficient irrigation technologies and water conservation measures are increasingly determining the long-term sustainability of farming enterprises.
The implications of El Niño also extend well beyond the farm gate.
Drought conditions across Southern Africa could place pressure on regional grain supplies, increase input costs and contribute to food price inflation. These pressures affect the entire agricultural value chain, from producers and feed suppliers to processors, retailers and consumers.
This interconnectedness reinforces the need for collective action. Building resilience can no longer be the responsibility of individual farmers alone. Financial institutions, agribusinesses, government, commodity organisations and the broader private sector all have a role to play in strengthening the agricultural ecosystem.
The good news is that Namibia enters this period from a stronger position than during previous El Niño cycles. Recent favourable rainfall seasons have supported rangeland recovery in many areas and improved water storage levels. This provides an important foundation upon which producers can build.
Yet favourable conditions should not create complacency.
Agriculture has always been an industry defined by planning for uncertainty. The businesses that perform best through challenging cycles are often those that prepare long before risks materialise. Waiting for drought conditions to intensify before taking action can significantly increase costs and reduce available options.
The anticipated 2026/27 El Niño should therefore serve as an important reminder: resilience is not built during a crisis. It is built in the years, months and seasons before one arrives.
Farmers, agribusinesses, processors, commodity traders and agricultural stakeholders should use this period of relative stability to assess vulnerabilities and strengthen preparedness. Whether the requirement is for water infrastructure, renewable energy, working capital, climate-smart investments or broader risk mitigation strategies, early planning can significantly improve resilience and expand the range of options available when conditions become more challenging.
At Standard Bank Namibia, we believe the future of agriculture will be shaped by those who invest proactively in climate-smart solutions, strengthen operational resilience and view sustainability as a business imperative rather than a compliance exercise. We encourage stakeholders across the agricultural value chain to engage with our Agribusiness team to explore practical financing and advisory solutions that can help strengthen resilience and support sustainable growth.
The next El Niño may test Namibia’s agricultural sector. But it will also provide an opportunity to demonstrate how far we have come in building a more resilient, innovative and sustainable farming industry.
Ultimately, the defining question is not whether El Niño will arrive.
It is whether we will be ready when it does.
Gerhard Kahorekua Mukuahima, Head: Agribusiness, Standard Bank Namibia
