By Arinze Okafor
I recently found myself in a fascinating conversation that left me unsettled but also inspired. Two truths emerged that I believe Namibia urgently needs to wrestle with.
The first is that with technological advancements, oil and gas will not create as many jobs as we anticipate.
Automation, digitization, and global shifts in energy demand mean that while Namibia’s discoveries are transformative for revenue and geopolitics, they are unlikely to absorb the tens of thousands of young people who will be entering the job market over the next decade.
The second truth is closer to home: if Bank Windhoek were started today, it would not be by a boardroom of seasoned financiers, but by a bold decision to back entrepreneurs.
That’s how it began in 1982 — ordinary Namibians pooling capital and betting on each other when the mainstream banking system excluded them. I should confess — I wasn’t even born when that story unfolded.
It’s a tale I’ve only heard from those who lived it, but it carries weight because it shows how deeply entrepreneurship and courage shaped our financial sector.
These two insights are not just anecdotes. Together, they form a wake-up call. If oil will not provide the jobs we hope for, and if our most successful institutions were born by backing entrepreneurs, then the real question for Namibia is this: how do we re-ignite a culture of inclusive, risk-tolerant capital allocation that places entrepreneurs, SMEs, and vocational skills at the center of our growth story?
The Mirage of Oil Jobs
We must be honest with ourselves. Namibia is rightfully proud of the offshore discoveries that have drawn the world’s energy giants to our shores. But the reality is that oil and gas production is capital-intensive, not labor-intensive.
In fact, it is designed to minimize human involvement. The rigs, refineries, and supply chains are increasingly automated. The jobs that remain are specialized and technical, often requiring skills Namibia does not yet produce at scale.
If we pin our youth employment hopes on oil, we will be setting ourselves up for disappointment. Yes, there will be revenue. Yes, there will be opportunities in services, logistics, and ancillary industries. But no — there will not be mass job creation. For that, we must look elsewhere.
Learning from Our Own History
This is where the story of Bank Windhoek matters. In the early 1980s, when the mainstream banking system overlooked local entrepreneurs, a group of Namibians decided to act. They pooled resources, trusted each other, and built what is today one of the pillars of our economy.
That origin is not just history. It is a blueprint. It shows that when capital is deployed inclusively and courageously — when it trusts entrepreneurs instead of excluding them — the multiplier effect is enormous. Institutions are born. Jobs are created. A culture of ownership takes root.
Encouragingly, some of our local banks today are beginning to open their minds in this same spirit. Every spreadsheet that crosses a credit desk is rarely all negative — there is always a person behind those numbers, and sometimes the real opportunity lies in backing the jockey, not just judging the horse.
The Mispriced Alpha in Our Backyard
Namibia has over 70,000 SMEs, many of them informal, rural, or early-stage. They account for most jobs in the country, yet their growth is stunted by lack of capital and advisory support. This is not a problem of ambition or demand. It is a problem of allocation.
We still treat small businesses as “too risky” when they are the most catalytic segment of our economy. Every dollar invested in a small but growing business circulates through communities, creates employment, and stimulates local supply chains. The multiplier effect is real.
In financial language, this is mispriced alpha — returns and resilience hiding in plain sight because we are unwilling to reframe risk. In human terms, it is the difference between a young entrepreneur in Oshakati scaling her poultry business or closing shop because no bank will open the door.
A Call for Inclusive Capital Architecture
If Namibia is to secure its future beyond oil, we must build a capital architecture that is inclusive, layered, and ecosystem-driven. This means embedding entrepreneurial thinking across our education and vocational systems so that young people are equipped to create jobs, not just seek them.
It also requires investing in the vocational sector — electricians, plumbers, artisans, solar technicians, agri-entrepreneurs — the skilled hands that form the backbone of any inclusive economy.
And critically, it demands unlocking blended and impact capital through concessional layers, guarantees, revenue-based finance, and local funds that can bridge the gap between grant money and commercial capital.
Namibia stands at a crossroads. With unprecedented oil and gas revenues on the horizon, channelling them into the same old patterns — large projects, centralized contracts, and safe financial allocations will squander our chance to build a broad-based economy.
Instead, even ring-fencing just 5% of this windfall for vocational and targeted entrepreneurial training, alongside SME credit guarantees, could reshape employment, enterprise growth, and national resilience for decades to come.
This is not charity — it enlightens self-interest. It is how sovereign risk is reduced, how stability is maintained, and how the dignity of work is restored.
Oil and gas will not save our youth from unemployment. What will, is the courage to do what our forebears did when they started Bank Windhoek: trust entrepreneurs, pool resources, and back each other.
The next wave of inclusive capital allocation — into SMEs, vocational training, and entrepreneurial ecosystems — will define Namibia’s future far more than oil barrels ever will.
The question is not whether we have the opportunity, but whether we have the will — and whether we can shift from the 99 reasons why it won’t work, as we have done for decades, to the one reason why it will. Let’s back the men and women creating actual jobs, aseblief.
*Arinze Okafor CFA, CAIA is a seasoned investment professional with a strong passion for fostering impactful investments and skills and capacity building. He is the Treasurer of the Namibia Tennis Association and is the founder of the Namibia Investment and Finance Academy (NIFA). The views expressed herein reflect his independent perspective.
