The expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is expected to weaken Namibia’s export diversification and reduce investment incentives in value-added industries, Simonis Storm has warned.
The U.S. trade framework officially expired on 30 September, ending 25 years of duty-free access for goods exported from sub-Saharan African countries to the United States.
Simonis Storm Junior Economist Almandro Jansen said the loss of U.S. trade preferences will make it harder for Namibian sectors such as fish processing, beef, beverages and manufactured goods to compete globally.
“For Namibia, the direct exposure under AGOA has historically been modest, given that its U.S.-bound exports are concentrated in uranium, non-monetary gold, copper and diamonds — commodities that already attract low MFN duties,” Jansen said.
He noted that AGOA’s expiry marks a major shift in Africa–U.S. trade relations, with far-reaching implications for export growth, industrialisation and regional strategy. “Its lapse removes these preferences, subjecting African goods to most-favoured-nation (MFN) tariffs and, in some cases, additional U.S. sector-specific duties,” he said.
Jansen said that while Namibia’s export mix cushions it from immediate tariff exposure, the long-term risk lies in slower diversification and declining investor confidence. “Without AGOA, new manufacturing and processing ventures targeting the U.S. market are likely to slow. This reduces Namibia’s incentives to channel investment into higher-value exports, at a time when broadening beyond raw minerals is a strategic imperative,” he said.
Across the continent, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) projects that the loss of AGOA could cut African exports to the U.S. by nearly 9%, with the largest impact on countries that had used the scheme to move up the value chain.
“The uncertainty around U.S. trade policy — magnified by the simultaneous imposition of new tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada — adds to the volatility of global value chains,” Jansen said.
He added that the end of AGOA serves both as a warning and an opportunity for Namibia.
“The warning lies in dependence on unilateral trade preferences that can vanish overnight, while the opportunity lies in accelerating local value addition, expanding agro-processing and leveraging Walvis Bay’s logistics hub under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA),” Jansen said.
“Namibia’s ability to capture greater value will depend less on preferential access to distant markets and more on building resilient regional value chains, improving industrial competitiveness and aligning with Africa’s broader trade integration agenda,” he added.
