This column has a methodology. Though not watertight, it starts with observation: watching the Namibian news cycle and the shamefully thin analysis that passes for commentary on major fiscal shifts. So we waited.
The government announced its intent to tax dividends paid to local shareholders—a move with wide implications. And yet: silence. No serious rebuttals, no modelling, no probing editorials. Just a few headlines, a cheer or two from technocrats, and then the fog of disinterest.
The absence of critique does not mean consensus. It means complacency, or worse, fear of questioning what is dressed up as reform but amounts to revenue hunting in a fragile economy. And in that vacuum, the official line hardens into presumed logic.
A Tax Framed as Reform
So here we are. From next year, Namibian individuals and trusts will pay a 10 percent tax on dividends. The Finance Ministry says this will make the system more equitable, broaden the tax base and promote reinvestment.
There is even a corporate tax cut to 28%, plus a N$100,000 exemption on business profits to protect smaller firms.
On the surface, it looks like a balancing act. Peer beneath, and the cracks show.
Exemptions for the Well-Informed
The exemption structure tells you everything. Dividends paid to Namibian resident companies, retirement funds and so-called exempt persons will not be taxed.
That is not equity—it is optional participation. The wealthy will shift their dividend flows into exempt vehicles, trusts or holding companies.
The middle-class saver will not. They will take the hit. As always, those with access to tax structuring win; those without pay.
Loopholes Closed—For Some
The Ministry of Finance calls this closing a loophole. It is closer to shifting the burden. A dividend is still taxed—unless you know where to hide it. This is not reform. It is selective immunity.
Punishing Local Capital
This tax does not promote reinvestment. It penalises extraction. Profits that once funded dividends will now sit idle or be channelled into non-productive holdings.
And the message to local investors is unmistakable: if you are Namibian and still investing locally, we will make sure you regret it.
Copy-Paste Policy, Wrong Context
The Ministry justifies the tax by pointing to South Africa, Botswana and Zambia, as though mimicking their tax codes will magically confer their economic depth.
Namibia has none of their market liquidity, scale or investor confidence. What it does have is a habit of copying complexity without understanding consequences.
Citing Zambia—a country still reeling from investor flight after overreaching on revenue grabs—is telling. Worse is the Angola comparison, where capital is barely mobile and the tax code reads like a ransom note. If these are the benchmarks, we are not aligning; we are regressing.
The Signal: Don’t Grow, Don’t Pay Out
The government insists this will not strain small businesses. Maybe not today. But small businesses do not stay small, and once profits exceed the N$100,000 threshold, the incentives become clear: extract less, or extract elsewhere.
The corporate tax cut is meant to soften the blow. But serious businesses do not operate on slogans. They read signals. And this one says: government short on ideas, long on appetite. When policy becomes reactive and revenue-hungry, trust evaporates.
Reform, or Surrender?
The Ministry talks about closing loopholes. What its opening is a flight path. Local capital will move offshore or into instruments the government cannot touch. That is not broadening the tax base—it is gutting it.
If the Finance Ministry were serious about economic growth, it would focus on credibility, not cosmetics. A dividend tax on locals—disguised by exemptions—is not reform. It is surrender. It sends one message, loud and clear: invest elsewhere.
*Briefly is a weekly column that’s opinionated and analytical. It sifts through the noise to make sense of the numbers, trends and headlines shaping business and the economy — with insight, wit and just enough scepticism to keep things interesting.
