By Stantin Siebritz
Throughout history, groundbreaking technologies have been heralded as revolutionary, promising to transform societies and economies.
However, the journey from innovation to widespread adoption is often marked by inflated expectations, disillusionment, and eventual practical integration.
The Gartner Hype Cycle provides a framework to understand this progression, and examining past technological hypes offers valuable insights into the current trajectory of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Namibia’s proactive steps in AI development position it to navigate this cycle effectively.
Historical Examples of Overhyped Technologies
Segway (2001): Touted as a revolutionary personal transporter that would change urban mobility, the Segway failed to gain widespread adoption due to high costs and regulatory hurdles.
Google Glass (2014): Marketed as the future of wearable technology, Google Glass faced privacy concerns and limited practical applications, leading to its discontinuation.
3D Television (2010s): Promised to bring immersive viewing experiences into homes, 3D TVs struggled with high costs, limited content, and the inconvenience of special glasses, resulting in low consumer interest.
These examples illustrate that while technological innovations can generate significant excitement, practical challenges often temper their impact.
Understanding the Gartner Hype Cycle
The Gartner Hype Cycle outlines five phases that technologies typically undergo:
1. Innovation Trigger: A technological breakthrough sparks interest.
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations.
3. Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as implementations fail to deliver, and producers of the technology may consolidate or fail.
4. Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can benefit enterprises become clearer; second- and third-generation products emerge.
5. Plateau of Productivity: The technology achieves mainstream adoption with proven benefits and stability.
Current Global Position of AI
As of 2025, AI, particularly generative models like ChatGPT and DALL-E, is transitioning from the Peak of Inflated Expectations towards the Trough of Disillusionment. Initial excitement in 2022-2023 brought promises of transforming industries.
However, growing awareness of AI limitations, concerns about job displacement, privacy, biases, and ethical considerations have emerged. Regulatory efforts have intensified globally, including the EU AI Act and US regulatory debates, reflecting emerging skepticism and caution.
Current Position in Africa and Namibia
In Africa, including Namibia, the AI landscape is slightly behind the global curve, currently at the Peak of Inflated Expectations, approaching the early phases of the Trough of Disillusionment.
Between 2023 and 2025, there has been cautious optimism and rising excitement, with many viewing AI as a catalyst for development leapfrogging, economic growth, and improvements in healthcare and education. In Namibia, recent conferences, workshops, startup initiatives, and governmental dialogues reflect optimism about AI’s potential to transform local economies and governance.
However, conversations are beginning to address concerns around infrastructure gaps, unemployment fears, ethical considerations, data sovereignty, and the need for regulation. Critical voices are highlighting challenges specific to the African context, such as limited internet access, digital literacy gaps, unemployment and inequality impacts, and AI biases in African datasets.
This indicates a crucial transition period where hype meets reality.
Namibia’s Proactive Steps in AI Development
Namibia has undertaken several initiatives to position itself as a leader in AI adoption:
National AI Strategy: In February 2025, Namibia launched its National Artificial Intelligence Strategy, aiming to establish the nation as a hub for “AI for Emerging Economies.” This strategy focuses on driving socio-economic growth and transforming key sectors.
Ethical AI Development: Namibia has engaged in stakeholder discussions to develop a national framework for the ethical use of AI, emphasizing transparency, accountability, and inclusivity. This aligns with UNESCO’s Recommendation on the Ethics of AI, highlighting Namibia’s commitment to responsible AI development.
Sectoral AI Applications: The Namibian government is exploring AI applications in sectors such as healthcare and education. For instance, AI can be used for predictive analysis in public health, aiding in resource allocation and disease outbreak mitigation. In education, data-driven analysis can assist in creating tailored learning materials to improve student outcomes.
By implementing these strategic initiatives, Namibia is poised to navigate the Hype Cycle more efficiently, moving from initial excitement through disillusionment to practical and productive AI integration. This proactive approach not only accelerates the country’s technological advancement but also serves as a model for other nations in the Southern African region and across Africa.
Conclusion
Understanding the Gartner Hype Cycle provides valuable insights into the trajectory of emerging technologies like AI. Namibia’s proactive measures, including the development of a National AI Strategy and a focus on ethical AI implementation, position the country to expedite its progression through the Hype Cycle phases.
This strategic approach ensures that AI adoption in Namibia is both responsible and aligned with national development goals, setting a precedent for other countries in the region.
Namibia has not only laid the groundwork for AI leadership in the region but is also on a realistic path to achieving it. Members of the newly established parliament recognize the value that AI can bring to service delivery. Minister of Health Dr. Esperance Luvindao has emphasized that achieving standardized healthcare for all necessitates the adoption of digital healthcare and AI.
As Namibia continues to embrace AI, it is crucial to heed the wisdom of Jurassic Park’s Dr. Ian Malcolm: “Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should.”
This cautionary statement underscores the importance of ethical considerations in technological advancement. Namibia’s commitment to developing a national framework for the ethical use of AI, emphasizing transparency, accountability, and inclusivity, demonstrates a thoughtful approach to innovation.
By balancing technological capabilities with ethical responsibilities, Namibia is poised to lead the region in responsible AI adoption, ensuring that advancements serve the greater good of its citizens.
*Stantin Siebritz is Managing Director of New Creation Solutions, and a Namibian Artificial Intelligence Specialist
