Analysts have raised concerns over the Namibia Statistics Agency’s (NSA) recent changes to the methodology used in its 2023 Census Labour Force data.
They argue that these adjustments could undermine the comparability of the new data with previous surveys.
“Namibia’s unemployment rate increased from 33.4% in 2018 to 36.9% in 2023. However, the NSA’s definition has changed, now excluding discouraged workers. According to the standard definition, unemployment stands at 54.8%,” said Tannan Groenewald, Head of Data Analytics and Economist at Cirrus Capital.
He noted that the updated unemployment figures highlight a shift in how the NSA measures unemployment.
The change reflects the 2023 introduction of the Combined Rate of Unemployment and Potential Labour Force (CRUPLF), which includes individuals not actively seeking employment, such as discouraged jobseekers and those occupied with family or studies.
Groenewald noted that in 2018, the broader measure, which included discouraged workers, reported an unemployment rate of 33.4%.
Under the current methodology, the 2023 unemployment rate stands at 36.9%, a stricter measure that excludes discouraged workers.
“Of the working-age population, there are 1,008,875 individuals not part of the labour force in 2023. Compared to 438,770 in 2018 who were not part of the labour force. This includes discouraged jobseekers and those that otherwise do not seek employment due to studies, family responsibilities, pensioners, etc.,” he noted.
Meanwhile, labour expert Herbert Jauch also expressed concerns regarding the methodological differences between the 2018 and 2023 surveys.
He emphasised the importance of consistency in defining unemployment to ensure the reliability of the data used for policymaking.
“For comparison’s sake, the methodology should remain consistent to ensure the accuracy and reliability of data used for policymaking. Using different methodologies introduces inconsistencies, which can affect the interpretation of trends and impact policy decisions. Accurate comparisons require that the same approach be applied across all datasets,” Jauch said.
Jauch also noted that the discrepancies in the definitions of unemployment in the 2023 and 2018 reports pose a challenge in comparing the two datasets accurately and might have a negative impact on local policymakers.
“The 2023 report categorises unemployment under stricter terms, while the 2018 report used a broader definition, which leads to a misleading comparison when viewed side by side. By the 2018 definition (broad unemployment, which provides a wider measure of joblessness), unemployment increased from 33.4% to 54.8%. Under the 2023 definition (a stricter measure), unemployment appears to have risen from 19.8% to 36.9%,” Jauch pointed out.
The NSA’s Statistician-General and CEO, Alex Shimuafeni, said the 2023 Labour Force statistics survey was conducted based on global standards and integrated with the 2023 Population and Housing Census.
Shimuafeni highlighted that the shift in methodology was aligned with international labour standards to ensure global comparability.
The 2023 Labour Force statistics reveal that the working-age population (aged 15 years and above) in Namibia has grown to an estimated 1,876,122.
“Of the 867,247 persons in the labour force, 320,442 were unemployed, resulting in an unemployment rate of 36.9%. This represents an increase from the 33.4% unemployment rate recorded in the 2018 Labour Force Survey,” the report revealed.
In the youth category (aged 15 to 34 years), the unemployment rate has decreased slightly, from 46.1% in 2018 to 44.1% in 2023.
However, a significant gender gap persists, with the unemployment rate for young females (48.2%) surpassing that of young males (44%).
“The male youth unemployment rate was lower for males at 44.0% compared to that of females at 48.2%,” the report noted.
Further analysis reveals that 341,931 individuals in 2023 are classified as part of the potential labour force, which includes those who are not seeking employment but are available to work.
“The combined rate of unemployment and potential labour force (CRUPLF) refers to the proportion of the working-age population that is either unemployed or underutilised, including those who are not actively seeking employment but are available and willing to work. The overall CRUPLF was estimated at 54.8%,” the NSA noted.
