The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations says Namibia’s cereal production for 2024 is estimated to be significantly lower than last year due to the impacts of El Niño.
According to FAO reports, Namibia is among the countries hardest hit by the El Niño-linked drought, which is expected to reduce cereal yields across Southern Africa.
“Since the onset of the year, Southern Africa has been grappling with extensive rainfall deficits and record-high temperatures, creating dire conditions for crop cultivation,” FAO said in the GIEWS Special Alert.
FAO further notes that with the harvest season set to commence in May, “prospects for recovery are bleak, with cereal harvests, primarily maize, projected to be below average. Several regions are anticipated to suffer extensive crop failures as a result”.
The report further highlights that governments in neighbouring countries have already declared drought emergencies, with Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe among those affected.
The situation in Namibia reflects past occurrences of El Niño events, underscoring the cyclical nature of such climatic phenomena.
Crop yield predictions from NASA Harvest GEOCIF model highlight the severity of the situation in Namibia Sorghum predicted yields for 2024 stand in Caprivi at 0.16 tonnes/hectare, compared to a five-year median of 0.21 tonnes/hectare, representing a 75.5% decrease.
In Kavango, sorghum predicted yields for 2024 are at 0.15 tonnes/hectare, down from a five-year median of 0.24 tonnes/hectare, marking a 61.8% decline.
Meanwhile, in Ohangwena, sorghum’s predicted yields for 2024 are projected at 0.16 tonnes/hectare, compared to a five-year median of 0.26 tonnes/hectare, indicating a 59.0% reduction.
Omusati sorghum’s predicted yields for 2024 are estimated at 0.11 tonnes/hectare, down from a five-year median of 0.20 tonnes/hectare, reflecting a 53.9% decrease.
“Oshana sorghum’s predicted yields for 2024 are forecasted at 0.16 tonnes/hectare, compared to a five-year median of 0.33 tonnes/hectare, showing a 50.3% decline,” FAO reports.
Oshikoto sorghum’s predicted yields for 2024 are anticipated to be 0.23 tonnes/hectare, down from a five-year median of 0.47 tonnes/hectare, representing a 47.8% decrease.
This comes after the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Land Reform also anticipates a significant decline in cereal production due to erratic rainfall and severe dry spells.
The decrease in aggregated national cereal production (maize, millet, sorghum and wheat), from 153,012 metric tonnes (MT) last season to an expected 72,150MT this season, threatens food security across the country.
Additionally, the commercial farming sector is also expected to fare poorly, with a projected harvest of only 35,200MT, representing a significant decrease of 68% compared to last season’s production of 111,000MT.
