Power play: Energy as an existential political concern for the 2024 election

As is the case with every new year, 2024 represents new possibilities. This year is accompanied by a highly anticipated national election.

The World Economic Forum has confirmed 2024 as a record year for elections, with over 2 billion voters heading to the polls to determine their fate. Namibia joins the ranks of the US, EU, India, South Africa, Mexico, Russia and others who will be hosting their elections. This year is therefore highly consequential for global politics.

Nonetheless, all parties who are vying for the highest office in the land of the brave have a responsibility to prove themselves worthy of leading our beautiful nation. It's incumbent on all parties to leave nothing to chance as it pertains to clarifying their tangible, intended development strategies for economic and social progress. Vague sentiments are insufficient as the days of voting along camaraderie lines are increasingly fading.

As it stands, Namibia has been hailed as an African success story. The US Department of State has cited an independent judicial system, protection of property and physical as well as telecommunications structure as reasons for the country’s success. Its booming energy industries contribute to its glory. The elephant in the room, however, is Namibia’s World bank ranking as the second most unequal country in the world, with a Gini coefficient of 59.1, second only to South Africa. It would, therefore, be intellectually dishonest to fully agree that Namibia is indeed a success story.

An incoming administration is lucky enough to have a functional democracy as its starting point, but it also faces the responsibility of addressing access to energy as an existential national concern. As per President Geingob's Harambee Prosperity Plan II focused on Infrastructure Development, Namibia grapples with an internal energy supply that falls short of meeting even one-third of the nation's demand.

In 2020, the local installed capacity stood at 624 MW. The National Integrated Resource Plan (NIRP) further illuminates the energy landscape, revealing that the current peak demand is at 673 MW, with projections indicating an increase to 931 MW by the conclusion of HPPII in 2025 and a substantial rise to 1,348 MW by 2030. Shockingly, access to electricity is limited to less than half of the population.

Electricity access can be a tool for the manifestation and/or consolidation of political power, extending far beyond its role as a mere commodity. The control wielded by authorities over energy infrastructure, its distribution, and overall availability is inherently political, influencing the socio-economic landscape and the perception of governance efficacy.

A government's capacity to ensure uninterrupted power supply becomes a tangible manifestation of its administrative competence. Consequently, challenges in electricity provision can quickly transform into points of contention, laying bare governmental shortcomings and potentially escalating into catalysts for social unrest. Neighbouring South Africa’s oft-cited energy challenges must signal that we are not immune to a similar fate.

Beyond the political sphere, access to electricity plays a pivotal role in shaping the spatial organization of society, exerting a profound impact on urbanization patterns and social stratification. In electrified urban centers, economic activities tend to thrive, creating hubs of prosperity. The spatial distribution of electricity becomes a crucial determinant of economic disparities and social inequalities. Areas with reliable and consistent power supply often witness concentrated economic development, fostering the emergence of affluent neighbourhoods and commercial districts.

Conversely, regions with inadequate or irregular electricity access are relegated to the peripheries of economic activity, perpetuating cycles of poverty and reinforcing existing social hierarchies. This spatial organization is not merely a consequence but also a perpetuator of existing power structures. Dare I say, it is reminiscent of socio-economic organization under the colonial project. In essence, electricity, beyond its technical function, becomes a tool through which political power is projected and societal structures are shaped.

The control over energy infrastructure and its distribution reflects and influences governance effectiveness, while the spatial consequences of electricity access contribute to the perpetuation of economic disparities and social inequalities. Recognizing the political dimensions of electricity access as a dynamic force is crucial in ensuring that Namibians are not subjected to painful reminders that trickle-down economics does not work.

Margaret Thatcher, former Prime Minister of the UK, has stated that popular capitalism is the economic expression of liberty. It can therefore be understood that capitalism is not just about transactions, but a continuous expression of individual influence in economic systems. Energy access therefore democratizes market participation – serving as a channel where the liberty, choice, and dignity of Namibian citizens find direct expression.

As the country approaches the 2024 general election, the discourse on electricity access must be considered a litmus test for governance effectiveness and economic equity.

The upcoming election must compel us as voters to consider candidates' visions for Namibia's energy future as a conduit for power that influences core principles of choice and dignity. *Bertha Tobias is a Rhodes-Scholar Elect for post-graduate studies at Oxford University. She holds a Bachelor's Degree (Honours) in International Relations with a concentration on Energy. Connect on bertha@berthatobias.com.