Namibia’s tourism sector is expected to bounce back to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 according to RMB.
RMB Africa Economist, Daniel Kavishe, said his forecasts hinges on the expected recovery on improved vaccination levels and relaxed government COVID-19 regulations.
“With vaccination rates improving (+30% of total population having received at least one dose) and government removing mandatory use of masks while opening the borders to travellers who are fully vaccinated (without having to produce a PCR test), the tourism sector is expected to see some gains in 2022,” Kavishe said.
Namibia this month scrapped the mandatory face mask policy in the wake of declining COVID-19 cases.
The RMB Economist, however, noted that threats to the expected economic recovery will be the on-going Russia/Ukraine conflict and package price increases in the sector.
“Key to this will be the broader global economic recovery which may be stifled by the Russia-Ukraine war. Furthermore, the rise in input costs, especially oil, may impact pricing in the sector as companies are forced to increase prices due to rising inflation expectations. We note that tourist package inflation is on the rise, with prices seemingly headed to pre-pandemic levels,” he said.
Kavishe said the announced resumption of flights into the country will augur well for the sector’s recovery, with the Namibia Airports Company noting that increased flights to Hosea Kutako International Airport (HKIA) has translated to a 131.5% increase in passengers’ traffic from 10393 in February 2021 to 24055 in February 2022.
“Overall, we applaud the regulatory moves to open up the country to more international travellers and we further note the resumption of several international flights. There are positive signs for sectoral recovery with market stability in 2023, barring further destructive covid-19 variants,” he said.
This was after Eurowings Discover and Ethiopian Airlines last week introduced additional flights to HKIA
“Bed occupancy rates are key and are expected to improve to 40% in 3Q21 this year versus 30% last year.”
According to the Hospitality Association of Namibia (HAN) latest data, Namibia recorded a national occupancy rate of 22.5% in February 2022, compared to 18.5% in January 2022.
Majority of the foreign tourists who visited local establishments during February 2022 travelled from Germany, Austria and Switzerland combined (24.4%), South Africa (7.4%), France (1.9%), Benelux (1.8%), the UK and Ireland (1.2%), Asia (1.3%), the US and Canada (0.7%), other SADC (0.2%) and Middle East (0.1%).
