The expectation that 99% of the green hydrogen workforce will be Namibian,makes for a stirring soundbite, but the numbers simply do not stack up.
No export-oriented megaproject in Africa has achieved that level of localisation so early on.
Namibia’s Skills Census launch this week, with the expectation that 15,000 construction jobs and 3,000 permanent posts, lays bare the gap between ambition and reality.
For perspective.Look to Angola’s oil sector for perspective. Angola’s laws mandate that 70% of the workforce in oil projects be Angolan. That is in the context of decades of operations, mature institutions, and established skills pipelines. Even then, companies import specialists. South Africa’s renewable industry shows the same pattern — localisation targets on paper, but persistent dependence on foreign engineers, turbine manufacturers and project managers.
Expecting 99% Namibian staffing for Hyphen’s green hydrogen scheme in its infancy is not just optimistic. It is implausible. The TVET sector is underfunded. Curricula do not match industry demand, and it will take years to produce welders, technicians and engineers at scale. Early phases of any megaproject are still staffed by fly-in professionals. Any realistic localisation will be phased, not instant.
That said, the Skills Census might yet serve a useful purpose. A centralised database of skills could help align training supply and demand. If numbers are used to set hard targets — how many safety officers, how many control engineers — and if government ties project approvals to realistic training pipelines and transparent reporting, the glossy database might avoid becoming a digital monument to disappointment.
Green hydrogen still holds massive potential for Namibia. But potential without practical planning is is hollow. Claiming nine out of ten workers will be Namibian before skills are built is not a strategy. It is a mirage.
*Briefly is a weekly column that is opinionated and analytical. It sifts through the noise to make sense of the numbers, trends and headlines shaping business and the economy with insight, wit and just enough scepticism to keep things interesting. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE NOT OUR OWN, we simply relay them as part of the conversation.
