Namibia’s trade dependency on South Africa has significantly declined over the last two decades, with official data revealing that the neighboring country accounted for only 36% of Namibia’s exports last year, compared to 85% in 2004.
Economist Robin Sherbourne attributed this shift to Namibia’s efforts to integrate more deeply into global markets and reduce its historical reliance on South Africa.
“Namibia has opened up much more to the rest of the world. Historically, we were very dependent on South Africa due to our membership in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), which created a tariff wall around the region. This was designed to protect South African industries, which in turn closely tied Namibia to South Africa,” Sherbourne said.
He noted that the gradual reduction in SACU tariffs has enabled Namibia to explore alternative markets for essential goods such as petroleum and cereals.
Sherbourne emphasized that this change has been accompanied by deliberate efforts to develop new trade relationships.
“As those tariffs have decreased over time, and as we’ve worked to develop our own supply chains, the number of countries we import from has grown significantly. Today, China and the European Union (EU) are critical partners, offering a range of products that meet Namibia’s needs more competitively than South Africa,” he said.
The economist highlighted that China and the EU now dominate Namibia’s trade landscape, each providing specialized products.
“The EU is likely more involved in food imports, while China focuses on goods like clothing and shoes. Each region has its strengths, but both have become indispensable trading partners. Their diverse product offerings and competitive pricing have made them attractive alternatives to South Africa,” Sherbourne noted.
The shift in trade has been driven primarily by economic considerations, as Namibia prioritizes cost-effective sourcing. Sherbourne stressed that the decision to diversify trade partners is based on practicality rather than preference.
“We only buy from these countries because it makes commercial sense. Businesses wouldn’t import from China if their shoes were twice as expensive as those available from South Africa. The same applies to vehicles from the EU—they are chosen because they are competitively priced and meet our quality standards,” he added.
The decline in trade with South Africa underscores Namibia’s evolving economic strategy to engage more with global markets and reduce dependency.
Sherbourne noted that this trend aligns with Namibia’s long-term goals for economic diversification and resilience.
“Namibia is increasingly sourcing from diverse markets and developing its supply chains. This reflects not only our integration into the global economy but also a strategic move to ensure we’re not overly reliant on any single trading partner,” he said.
Despite this diversification, trade between Namibia and South Africa grew to N$67.1 billion in 2022 for both imports and exports, up from N$59.1 billion recorded in 2021. The two countries continue to maintain strong trade ties due to their economic integration and geographic proximity.
In October 2024, Namibia’s major trading partners were South Africa, China, and Peru, with South Africa accounting for 35.7% of total imports.
