For years, Namibia’s leadership criticised the World Bank for overstating the country’s prosperity. The upper-middle-income label, they claimed, was a distortion. It ignored inequality, dismissed history and robbed Namibia of access to cheaper finance and donor support. The late President Hage Geingob, was particularly vocal. He insisted the classification painted a misleading picture and disadvantaged the country on the global stage.
Now, Namibia has received what it long demanded. The World Bank has reclassified the country as lower-middle-income. This was not the result of lobbying or reform but of arithmetic. Namibia’s economy slowed. The mining sector contracted. Population estimates were revised. National income per capita fell. In response, the country slipped below the threshold.
This is not a political gesture by the World Bank. It is not punitive. The methodology has remained consistent. The country’s economic performance has not.
And yet, instead of a victory lap, the response has been tentative and defensive. There has been no recognition that the metrics now reflect the narrative officials have advanced for years. Instead, there is discomfort. The silence is revealing.
This is the price of using classification as political cover. For more than a decade, policymakers treated the income label as the problem rather than the conditions it attempted to describe. Now that the label has changed, they are forced to face what it actually means.
The downgrade confirms a deeper malaise. Reforms have been cosmetic. Investment policy has been erratic. The private sector remains boxed in by regulatory uncertainty. State-owned enterprises continue to underperform. Large-scale development plans have produced fanfare but little structural change. The gap between ambition and execution has widened. The result is not surprising. It is simply inconvenient.
This new classification will bring with it access to concessional loans and aid windows. But that is not an achievement. It is a consequence of failure. And if Namibia uses the reclassification as a reason to borrow more without correcting its trajectory, the country will simply prolong the underlying stagnation. Cheaper debt will not compensate for a lack of competitiveness.
The next development plan must acknowledge what the previous ones ignored. Namibia is not in decline because it was misclassified. It is in decline because it has failed to build an economy resilient enough to withstand shocks or inclusive enough to deliver broad-based growth. The downgrade is not a glitch. It is a verdict.
And it may not be the last. Credit rating agencies will have the next word. Their assessments come with fewer explanations and more immediate consequences.
What comes next will not be shaped by sympathy or spin. It will be determined by results.
