The Namibian voter registration period is fast drawing to a close, with but a short window remaining in which to register to vote, the first step towards placing a cross next to a preferred party and presidential candidate come November.
A first step that if not taken, negates the ability to later decide to vote, and decide who to vote for.
Despite this first step being so vital to the democratic process, a clear emerging trend is that young people are hesitant to register, and by extension, vote. These are the same young people on whom the virtues of democracy have been extolled for decades. Moreover, this is the same group that is most economically disenfranchised – largely urbanised, educated and yet suffering from vast unemployment. In the 2018, pre-COVID data (the latest NSA is able to supply), just over 578,000 people under the age of 34 were economically active, however 265,000 of these same persons were unemployed – some 46%. Over the subsequent six years, however, things have undoubtedly got worse.
By our calculations, around 300,000 additional young people have “come of age” and become members of the labour force. How many of these young people have found employment is anyone’s guess, however in all likelihood, relatively few. Pre-COVID, Namibia sat with the seventh highest youth unemployment rate in the world. Post COVID, probably higher.
So why is there a seeming reluctance within the Namibian youth to be involved in the democratic process, and to have their voices heard at the ballot? One possibility is that there is a view that their votes don’t matter, or don’t have an impact. From our recent set of election analysis, this is simply wrong. Here are some key points that the Namibian youth, especially, would do well to consider when deciding whether to register to vote, and as such stay eligible to cast their decision come November.
Young, urbanised voters are now, by far, the most influential potential voter block in the country. By our calculations, well over 60% of the eligible voters in this year’s election are “born frees” or born within 5 years of independence – i.e. “youth” with no clear memory of the pre-independence period. It is now the young people of Namibia that will decide the electoral outcomes. If they pitch up.
Liberation politics is no longer the key driving force behind voter behaviour. Between 2009 and 2014, support for the incumbent party and their presidential candidate hit an all-time high. From a steady 75-77% for SWAPO from 1993-2009, support leapt to 80% in 2014. For the presidential candidate, from steady support of 73-77%, 2014 saw Geingob clock an incredible 87% of the vote. This came off the back of the period of strongest sustained growth Namibia had ever seen. However, in 2019, these positive trends reversed, and then some. From strong economic growth from 2011-2015, growth went off a cliff in 2015, due to a raft of bad local policy, adverse commodity price movements, reduced Angolan trade and more. Support for SWAPO fell below the 2/3rds threshold in the National Assembly for the first time since the 1989 election, to 65%, and for the presidential candidate, to 56%.
While many ascribe this change to “Fishrot”, the reality is that both the 2014 and 2019 results are largely explained by economic conditions and the improvement / deterioration in people’s lives over these respective periods. The public was clearly voting, more than ever, on economic conditions, not liberation credentials. This is not surprising given that more and more voters do not recall the pre-independence period and did not experience the step change improvement that independence and majority rule delivered in the same way that their parents and grandparents did. Even then, it is worth recalling that in 1989, SWAPO received just 57% of the vote.
The Geingob support reversal is also worth a closer look. In 2019, incumbent President Geingob was fewer than 52,000 votes away from a run-off election with then independent (now IPC) Panduleni Itula. Ten times this number of registered voters (over 532,000) chose not to vote in the Presidential election, while an additional 112,000 eligible voters were not registered to vote. In total, 12 times as many people who could have voted didn’t, as would have been needed for a run-off in the presidential race. Since 2019, we estimate that at least a further 280,000 young, eligible voters have joined the potential voter base, while a small number of older voters will have passed away. Once again, the youth vote is vastly influential.
Another poorly understood matter, amongst the youth especially, is that more people think like you than you realise. Survey results from Afrobarometer show that 76% of Namibians are concerned about the direction the economy is going in, with over half of the population reporting deteriorating personal living conditions. Similarly, only 27% of the population believes that the current economic conditions are being well handled by Government. Most interestingly, however, is how these perceptions align perfectly with economic conditions. The populous was bullish on the economy and positive on Government when the economy was performing well, up to 2014.
Despite the reticence of young voters, a very clear message was delivered in 2019 – poor economic performance, resulting in deterioration in human conditions, has political consequences. Add to this corruption exposes, and the public will take action. This message, and indeed this feedback mechanism, is fundamental to democracy and accountability. In democracies world-wide, when the status quo isn’t working for the public, they vote to send a message to policy makers that they want change. Maybe this takes the form of reduced support, maybe a change in Government / leadership.
Certainly, Namibia has changed paths dramatically post 2019, with a significant increase in the number of technocrats in key positions and sensible policy reforms (albeit at the margin). Would this have happened without the 2019 shock vote outcome? This is anyone’s guess, but I doubt it. More importantly, however, is the question of whether enough has been done, and whether the (yet to be unveiled for the most part) manifesto promises of the various parties will continue this reform or reverse it.
Nevertheless, voters making their voices heard, remains vital. The recent example in the UK is prescient. The Conservatives suffered their worst defeat in nearly a century after they failed to deliver on the demands of the people. Many people remain long-term Conservative supporters; however they realised that if they do not send a message that they want their needs to be taken more seriously by the political classes, they give a mandate to the leadership to continue on their current path without consequences, and accountability.
In Namibia, elections are free and fair, and thus the outcome is not pre-ordained. The outcome depends on the decisions of the public, which starts with the decision to register. The outcome of the elections, and the future of the lives of Namibians, the management of oil discoveries and much more, depend on the decisions taken by the voters.
Of course, none of this is to say HOW people should vote, but rather THAT they should vote. As data people (not politicians), we can see the vast impact that young voters can have in this election, and thus encourage all that can to register, and not think that their vote doesn’t matter – it does, more than ever. Young voters should be determining their own and their country’s futures and the leadership that is needed for the same. Staying home helps no one.
*Rowland Brown is a Namibian Economist with a focus on financial economics. Born in and raised in Namibia, he studied in Scotland before returning to Namibia in 2010. After working for the National Planning Commission, the Capricorn Group, Bank of Namibia and IJG Securities, in 2017 he co-founded a diversified financial service company, Cirrus, with a focus on financial intermediation and market development. Six years later, the group now employs over 70 people.Since 2015 he has worked as a consulting expert on financial system stability for the IMF with a focus on East Africa. He was the founding chairperson of the Economic Association of Namibia and a graduate of the US State Department’s International Visitor Leadership Programme to the United States.His time is increasingly spent on corporate finance work as part of the corporate finance team at Cirrus, where the focus is on local capital market development.
