Namibia’s economy is expected to record a gradual recovery in 2026, supported by improved performance across key productive sectors, according to First National Bank of Namibia’s latest GDP review.
The outlook comes after Namibia’s real GDP growth slowed to 1.7% year-on-year in 2025, marking the country’s weakest economic performance since 2021, when momentum in the oil and gas sector first began to accelerate.
According to FNB Market Research Manager Mandisa Van Wyk, cyclical improvements in agriculture are expected to support the primary sector while also boosting downstream manufacturing activities, particularly meat processing.
“Looking ahead to 2026, cyclical improvements in agriculture are expected to support the primary sector and downstream manufacturing, particularly meat processing,” Van Wyk said.
She said mining activity is also expected to strengthen, supported by renewed oil and gas exploration activity. A potential final investment decision by TotalEnergies could act as a major catalyst for investor confidence and sector growth.
“Mining output should strengthen, aided by renewed oil and gas exploration, with TotalEnergies’ anticipated final investment decision mid-year providing a possible catalyst for renewed investor interest,” she said.
Infrastructure-related sectors are also projected to gain momentum as investment in water security and electricity generation continues. Increased capital spending in these areas is expected to support broader economic activity while helping to address long-standing supply constraints.
“The electricity and water sectors are projected to gain momentum as capital investments in water security and power generation continue,” Van Wyk said.
Tourism is also expected to improve, driven by increased business travel and corporate-related activity, with positive spillover effects anticipated for the wholesale and retail trade sectors.
Despite the improved outlook, FNB warned that economic growth remains constrained by ongoing fiscal pressures and structural weaknesses. Government revenue declined by 3.6% year-on-year to N$92.7 billion in 2025, reflecting continued strain on public finances.
Van Wyk said planned fiscal consolidation measures in 2026 are likely to weigh on domestic demand, particularly as lower development spending continues to affect the construction sector.
High unemployment levels, inflation risks linked to global geopolitical tensions and the possibility of higher oil prices remain key threats to growth.
FNB also noted that regulatory burdens and policy uncertainty continue to limit investor appetite and could delay the implementation of major projects across the economy.
