By Freddy Tyapa
- The African continental free trade
African Continental Free Trade Area became fully operationalized in 2021, the comprehensive market represents a unified economic zone with a combined GDP of approximately $3.4 trillion and a population of 1.3 to 1.4 billion people. One of the key focuses of the initiative is to reduce trading obstacles which African countries face when trading amongst each other e.g. the different currencies used by every other country.
Intra-African trade makes up only around 14-16% of total African trade, which is low compared to other regions (e.g., 60-70% in Europe/Asia), indicating immense growth potential. Currently Namibia is part of the Southern Africa development community which is one of Africa’s biggest trading blocs and its success is mainly due to simplified trading models with the member countries.
The SADC trading bloc recorded an astonishing USD 183 billion in trades for the 2025/24. Promoting the country to proactively participate in the new bloc allows the country to tap in new markets with different offering and this can create new growth potentials for Namibia.
- The tariffs
Tariffs are taxes imposed by a government on goods and services imported from other countries. Think of a tariff like an extra cost added to foreign products when they enter the country. They’re usually a percentage of the price of the goods. The level of the tariff will affect the significance of its impacts. Tariffs often serve as a form of revenue to the government especially if does a lot of imports compared to exports.
Some countries use tariffs as a tool negotiate politically. In my view the key thing about tariffs is that it can be used as a tool to protect domestic industries. Domestic industries may benefit from reduced foreign competition. If foreign goods are now relatively more expensive, this would drive up demand for domestic products, allowing domestic industries to expand and increase production.
In recent conversations from 2025 there has been some buzzing news around the tariffs increases by the United States of American which were imposed on majority of its African traders including Namibia. China has also announced a tariff free treatment on trades from African countries.
According to the African development bank Africa’s trade in goods with the US is not significant compared to other partners. Africa’s exports to the US were only 4.9% of total exports in 2023, compared to 31.8% to the European Union, 15.9% to Africa, 11.9% to China, 6.1% to the United Arab Emirates, and 4.9% to India. Similarly, Africa accounts for just 1.4% of US total goods exports and 1.3% of total US goods imports. The impact of the US tariffs on Africa’s GDP would be moderate, though Africa’s exports to the US would decrease substantially.
China’s President Xi Jinping announced in February 2026 that from 1 May China would be granting zero-tariff treatment to 53 African countries. China-Africa trade reached US$348 billion in 2025, up 17.7% from 2024. Chinese exports to Africa dominate trade flows, and amounted to US$225 billion, an increase of 25.8%. This compares to US$123 billion in imports from Africa, which grew by just 5.4%. Such a rising trade deficit between Africa and its largest sovereign trade partner points to the timeliness of new China policies that support African exports to China.
As this shift is realized, Namibia needs to position itself to gain from the favorable markets as we are nation that mostly export our commodities currently. Comparing how to the two scenarios of the two global market super powers we tend to lose and gain by the next when we export our products to their markets.
When Namibia products are exported to the U.S we are imposed to pay 21% tariff – which means for every N$100 product sold to the U.S we are basically selling for N$79 (real value) which is a loss. In the same ration a trade done with China under the current arrangement, selling a N$100 product will be on its true value (N$100) as we are not paying any tariff on the trade.
Our economy is centered around the raw export of minerals which is one of the highest contributors to our gross domestic product and one particular market is China.
- The oil hope
Namibia recently discovered a new revived hope in oil along the multiple drillings in the orange basin with a variety of foreign conglomerates leading the drilling with their expertise. The question however remains on how are we as a Nation getting ourselves ready to fully benefit from the discoveries. Nations like Nigeria and Angola have been in similar places for years and they haven’t yet achieved their maximum beneficiation from their natural resources.
Looking at the contributing factors of the oil value chain from extraction to consumption Namibia is nowhere near a position where they are able to control the oil commodity. We have noticed however a new approach from Nigeria who recently built an oil refinery plant by the Dangote group and Angola, Zambia and Botswana recently signed a deal which would see them build a oil refinery for USD 6.6 Billion.
These would allow them to reduce their current expenditure on oil imports and benefit more by exporting the surplus in any other African land locked country. Namibia needs to seek such partnerships which would allow a regular Namibian citizen to directly consume what is mined within our borders. The lawmakers need to play their part in making sure the interests on Namibians are at the center when negotiations are taking before the final investment decisions which are projected to be within 2026/27 calendar year.
- The end goal
With this many changes happening in the markets, Namibia and it is policy makers need to align themselves closely with these developments. All these create a window for our country to be an active and possible power trader within regional and international markets. Most of these developments are in their primary phases and it is always best to be on the frontline when these are happening. The African continental free trade initiative is advocating from intra Africa trade to an African market with a potential of USD3.4 trillion once fully utilized. Namibia can participate with our diverse portfolio especially the fishing which I believe is under-utilized.
By comparing the two scenarios of the two global markets superpowers we tend to lose and gain by the next when we export our products to their markets. The zero-rated tariff countries unable us to do more exports at the lowest cost and this should be a driver for us to trade more refined and raw products to get the maximum returns.
We need to create a chain of trading partners where our benefits are aligned. The oil discoveries have the capacity to change the Namibian economic outlook with estimates of surpassing 11 billion barrels quoted, that is equivalent to USD 1 trillion of value that can be unlocked. If it is well executed, that would have a positive impact on every single Namibia citizen and livelihoods can definitely be transformed through this oil boom.
*Freddy Tyapa – Seasoned banker, economic and legal analyst who writes in his own capacity.
