Namibia’s livestock sector is expected to record a modest recovery in 2026, with cattle marketing volumes projected to increase by between 20% and 30% as herd rebuilding efforts begin to stabilise, according to the Namibia Agricultural Union (NAU).
The union said the anticipated recovery follows a prolonged period of contraction caused by drought conditions and erratic rainfall, which continue to represent the main structural risks shaping participation in the cattle market.
According to the NAU, the recent downturn reflects a cyclical response to environmental pressure, underscoring the sector’s vulnerability to rainfall variability and extended dry spells.
“Looking ahead, the herd rebuilding process is expected to continue into 2026, with marketing volumes anticipated to recover modestly, potentially growing by 20% to 30% as herd rebuilding gains stability. This cyclical contraction highlights the vulnerability of the livestock sector to Namibia’s highly variable and erratic rainfall,” the union said.
The NAU said cattle prices are expected to remain elevated across all categories in 2026, with weaner prices influenced by both regional and domestic demand dynamics.
Demand for weaners from South Africa is expected to remain stable, supported by improved feedlot profitability driven by low yellow maize prices and strong carcass selling prices, the union said. Improved local rainfall conditions could further strengthen domestic demand and support prices.
“Cattle prices are expected to remain elevated in 2026 across all categories. Demand for weaners in South Africa is anticipated to remain stable, while improved feedlot profitability and better local rainfall could further support prices.
However, uncertainty surrounding foot-and-mouth disease remains a significant risk,” the union said.
The NAU noted that the sector is still emerging from an extended recovery period following successive droughts, with some regions experiencing three consecutive dry years since 2019. These conditions forced widespread destocking across the cattle industry.
Between January and September 2025, cattle marketing declined sharply, with live exports to South Africa contracting by about 76%.
During the same period, approximately 60% of animals traded through auctions were retained for breeding and oxen production due to limited market-ready supply, the union said.
