By Tio Nakasole
Since independence, Namibia has struggled to overcome three interrelated developmental challenges: poverty, inequality, and unemployment.
However, due to the national outcry over unemployment, discussions around the labor force have been met with skepticism and criticism, particularly following the recent announcement of the labor force report by the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) last week.
Whether or not the NSA figures accurately reflect the reality on the ground—using both broad and strict definitions—remains a topic for another day.
According to the 2023 Population and Housing Census – Labor Force Report, Namibia’s unemployment rate increased from 33.4% in 2018 to 36.9% in 2023.
Given the current unemployment rate and past economic growth, there appears to be a missing link between economic growth performance, population growth, and employment outcomes.
On the other hand, the World Bank reports that the Namibian economy grew by 4.2% in 2023, driven mainly by the mining sector, including investments in oil exploration. This suggests that while economic growth has occurred over the years, it has not translated into proportional employment creation.
It is now evident that the conventional macroeconomic framework, which emphasizes macroeconomic stability and assumes that economic growth alone is a “gamechanger” for employment and poverty reduction, has not worked in Namibia’s favor. The link between economic growth and poverty alleviation is not automatic.
Of course, the government has made efforts to curb unemployment through interventions such as the National Employment Policy of 1997, the Targeted Intervention for Employment and Economic Growth (TIPEEG) between 2011 and 2014, the adoption of Decent Work Country Programmes (DWCP), and the Harambee Prosperity Plan (HPP). However, the key question remains: Have these initiatives yielded the desired results?
From an economic perspective, GDP growth is driven by a combination of key variables, including government expenditure, consumption, investment, and net exports.
Simply put, the government’s ability to attract investors—particularly in sectors such as oil, gas, and green hydrogen—has the potential to boost economic output.
This could happen in several ways: first, new factories and industries would employ more workers during and after construction, leading to job creation. Second, workers earning incomes would increase demand for goods and services, thereby stimulating consumption.
Finally, the government would collect more revenue through VAT, corporate taxes, and tariffs, which could be reinvested in infrastructure such as roads, schools, airports, and ports. The interplay between these factors determines the overall trajectory of economic growth in a mixed economy like Namibia—provided that corruption, imperfect competition, and other exogenous factors do not widen inequality or hinder wealth distribution.
However, all of this is only possible if Namibia has a skilled workforce aligned with market demands.
The reality is that one cannot effectively combat poverty, create jobs, or move the economy forward without critically assessing past progress and fostering a conducive environment for businesses to thrive.
The question remains: Where are these past employment programs now, what did they achieve, and have they been reviewed to determine whether they met their intended objectives?
Development is a process, but repeatedly abandoning initiatives and starting new ones without ensuring continuity can lead to bureaucratic inefficiencies and inadequate funding, making it difficult for projects to succeed.
The implementation of employment initiatives, such as the National Employment Policy of 1997, was hampered by the lack of a clear implementation strategy, proper monitoring and evaluation, and an effective reporting mechanism.
These shortcomings must be addressed before declaring war on unemployment.
Notably, according to national statistics, some of the regions with the highest unemployment rates in Namibia include Ohangwena, Kavango West, Kavango East, and //Kharas.
In the two Kavango regions, where soil fertility is relatively high, there is an opportunity to capitalize on agricultural projects, particularly the Green Schemes, to boost production and ensure processed goods are ready for end-user consumption.
Meanwhile, in Ohangwena, which has a large youth population interested in business, investment in informal enterprises, SMEs, and vocational training should be prioritized. A similar approach could be applied to //Kharas.
In today’s technology-driven world, employment opportunities, particularly in industrial and manufacturing sectors, require experience, skills, and education. Safety and quality assurance are crucial, and this is where some young people may be missing the point.
One of the key goals of Namibia’s Vision 2030, which is now just four years away, is to reduce unemployment to below 5%.
To ensure sustainable development, employment programs must be aligned with long-term national development plans while also being flexible enough to respond to economic shocks and external challenges.
As Namibia prepares for its final National Development Plan (NDP 6) before Vision 2030, the economy must expand rapidly and sustainably. This requires supportive, redistributive, and job-oriented government policies to address the rising unemployment rate, poverty, and inequality.
*Tio Nakasole holds an Honors degree in Economics, is a final-year MBA student, and works as a Research Analyst at MONASA Advisory and Associates. The views expressed are his own and do not represent those of his employer.Contact: theoerastus@gmail.com
